Trump Administration Proposes NATO-Style Security Guarantees for Ukraine Pending Congressional Vote

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly finalizing a comprehensive framework for peace in Ukraine that includes offering legally binding security guarantees modeled after NATO's Article 5, contingent upon ratification by the U.S. Congress. This diplomatic proposal, reported on December 13, 2025, is structured around three distinct agreements covering the cessation of hostilities, the security assurances themselves, and post-war reconstruction efforts. A senior U.S. official indicated the intent is to present a robust guarantee to Congress, explicitly stating it would not be a "blank check."

The central and most sensitive aspect of the proposed settlement involves territorial adjustments. Under the current U.S. plan, Ukraine would retain sovereignty over approximately 80% of its territory prior to the conflict. This retention of sovereignty is understood to require concessions in the Donbas region, potentially including the establishment of a demilitarized zone. The plan simultaneously promises Ukraine its most significant security guarantee to date, coupled with a substantial package dedicated to post-war economic recovery and reconstruction, intended to motivate acceptance.

To advance this framework, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner were scheduled to convene in Berlin over the weekend leading up to Monday, December 15, 2025. These high-level discussions were set to include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior leaders from key European nations, including Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, with the objective of bridging divergences between Washington's proposal and Kyiv's stated position. The diplomatic urgency was underscored by the White House's prior indication that an envoy would only be dispatched if sufficient prospects for progress existed.

Despite progress on the security guarantee, caution persists among some allies in Kyiv regarding the territorial compromises under discussion. Several European leaders reportedly advised President Zelenskyy against quickly committing to an agreement that demands ceding territory not yet physically captured by Russian forces. This caution follows initial feedback where Kyiv revised the original U.S. plan, which reportedly favored Moscow's demands, into a 20-point counterproposal. The concept of a demilitarized zone in Donbas has been a point of contention, with Ukrainian officials previously stating such discussions remain theoretical and subject to the highest political level or a national vote.

Adding immediate pressure to the diplomatic maneuvering, Kyiv experienced massive strikes targeting its energy infrastructure on December 13, 2025, resulting in power outages for thousands of residents. This bombardment of critical infrastructure highlights the precarious security situation on the ground as negotiations proceed. Furthermore, the proposed guarantee references NATO's Article 5, which enshrines collective defense, though the U.S. version necessitates Congressional action, unlike the traditional NATO consultation process. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted that Europe must prepare for a fundamental shift in its relationship with the U.S. as the era of Pax Americana wanes.