Security Guarantees for Ukraine Advance, But Berlin Talks Stall on Territorial Deadlock

High-level diplomatic consultations concluded in Berlin during mid-December 2025, specifically from December 14th to 15th. The primary focus of these meetings was establishing a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine. A significant breakthrough was achieved regarding security mechanisms intended for Kyiv, a development highlighted by American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who noted substantial forward movement. However, this positive momentum was immediately tempered by an intractable disagreement concerning territorial concessions demanded by the Russian Federation.

The discussions involved Ukrainian representatives alongside European officials, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. A central point of negotiation was the structure of the ceasefire, which needed to incorporate provisions safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty. These provisions were to be reinforced by robust security guarantees from the United States and European nations, modeled closely on Article Five of the NATO Charter. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that agreements were reached with both the US and Europe concerning legally binding security assurances, which would require ratification by the US Congress.

According to American officials present, approximately 90 percent of the issues contained within the 20-point draft peace agreement had been resolved during these sessions. This suggests that the foundational elements of a potential resolution were largely in place, setting the stage for a broader agreement, were it not for the looming territorial dispute.

Financial and military support formed other critical components of the agenda. The European Union formalized a decision to permanently freeze roughly 210 billion euros of Russian Central Bank assets. This action has predictably sparked legal challenges, most notably a lawsuit filed by the Bank of Russia against the custodian Euroclear, claiming damages amounting to 18.1 trillion rubles. Concurrently, Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal issued a direct appeal to allies, urging them to commit a minimum of 0.25 percent of their Gross Domestic Product toward arming Ukraine in 2026, a request translating to approximately 120 billion dollars.

Despite the optimism surrounding the security architecture, the territorial question remains the critical stumbling block. Kyiv maintains an absolute refusal to acknowledge Russian control over any portion of the Donbas region. Conversely, Moscow, speaking through Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, asserts that there is no basis for making concessions regarding Crimea, the LPR, the DPR, or the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, citing their formal incorporation into the Russian Constitution. For context, by August 2025, Russia controlled about 19 percent of Ukraine’s territory, equating to 114,500 square kilometers.

Ultimately, the progress made in designing a comprehensive security framework is being undermined by the unresolved issue of territorial sovereignty. Key figures involved in the talks included President Zelensky, US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, Chancellor Merz, and EU Council President António Costa. Attention now shifts to the upcoming EU summit commencing on Thursday, and Chancellor Merz’s scheduled address on December 17th. These events will likely be crucial in the ongoing effort to find a viable compromise that secures the necessary safety guarantees without forcing Ukraine to surrender sovereignty over its disputed lands.