Berlin Talks Advance Peace Framework as Ukraine Considers NATO Alternative

Intensive diplomatic negotiations convened at the Chancellery Office in Berlin on Monday, December 15, 2025, marking a critical juncture in efforts to finalize a peace plan aimed at concluding the war in Ukraine by the close of 2025. The primary focus remained on discussions between delegations from the United States and Ukraine, centered on a US-promoted framework that has been refined from 28 points down to a current 20-point proposal.

A significant development emerged from these high-stakes talks, which followed initial discussions on Sunday, December 14, 2025, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled a major concession from Kyiv's long-standing position. President Zelenskyy publicly indicated Ukraine's readiness to forgo its constitutional aspiration for NATO membership in exchange for robust, legally binding security guarantees modeled after NATO's Article 5 from the US, Canada, and Japan. This concession, which Zelenskyy termed a significant compromise, was immediately juxtaposed with an absolute rejection of territorial concessions, asserting that any agreement must be based on the current front lines.

Concurrently, progress was reported concerning the utilization of frozen Russian central bank assets to fund reconstruction efforts. The high-level diplomatic engagement, hosted by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, was set to broaden later that day with the expected arrival of numerous European heads of state and institutional leaders. Key figures due to join the final discussions included Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Furthermore, a European-led 'multinational force' (Coalition of the Willing), supported by the US, was committed to by these leaders to assist in rebuilding Ukrainian military capacity, securing airspace and seas, and potentially operating within Ukraine post-ceasefire. Negotiations have been characterized by a degree of 'de-institutionalization,' involving figures like US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, alongside Russian representative Kirill Dmitriev, who has been under US sanctions since 2022. US President Donald Trump expressed optimism regarding the process, stating, "I think we're closer now than we have ever been," following earlier meetings with Putin earlier in December.

Despite the diplomatic momentum, fundamental obstacles persist, primarily regarding territorial demarcation, which Kyiv explicitly refuses to yield. Public opinion data from Ukraine indicates that 72% of the populace is prepared to approve a plan freezing the situation along current lines if security guarantees are secured, while 75% reject ceding land without such assurances. The commitment to maintain a peacetime military strength of 800,000 troops was also a point of discussion, contrasting with Russian demands for significant force reductions. Russian reaction remains guarded, with Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov welcoming serious decisions but warning against "tricks aimed at stalling for time."

Regarding the financial aspect, the utilization of frozen Russian assets, estimated by some sources to be between $150–200 billion, is viewed as a potential financial guarantee, providing Ukraine with an estimated $40–45 billion annually for recovery or defense. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted that while the EU had indefinitely frozen approximately €210 billion in assets on December 12, the actual allocation for reconstruction remains distant, citing the US argument that discussing asset seizure complicates negotiations with Putin. Key questions remain unanswered, including whether the US security guarantees will secure necessary US Senate approval and the ultimate agreement from President Vladimir Putin on a ceasefire. The conflict is now entering its fourth winter, a backdrop against which a recent Ukrainian military success—a UUV strike on a Russian Kilo-class submarine in Novorossiysk on the night of December 14-15, 2025—occurred just before the main Berlin talks.