Global Reinsurance Industry Faces Multi-Billion Dollar Losses as Civil Unrest and Strikes Intensify

The global insurance landscape is currently undergoing a fundamental transformation, marked by a sharp increase in financial liabilities tied to Strikes, Riots, and Civil Commotion (SRCC). What was once categorized as a secondary or niche risk is now a primary driver of multi-billion dollar losses for the international reinsurance industry. A detailed analysis covering the timeline from 2013 through to projections for 2026 reveals a staggering trend: between 2020 and 2024, the total insured losses specifically attributed to SRCC surpassed $8 billion, according to estimates provided by Howden Re. This surge signals a departure from historical norms where such events were considered localized, infrequent, and financially manageable.

This upward trajectory in claims is directly correlated with the rising tide of civil unrest and the deepening political polarization observed within developed Western democracies. David Flandro, the Managing Director at Howden Re, has highlighted that the global risk environment has undergone a radical transformation since 2022. This shift has not only led to a necessary hike in insurance tariffs but has also occurred alongside rising asset values, which further compounds the industry's overall exposure to these volatile social events. The result is a more expensive, volatile, and complex landscape for insurers to navigate in the coming years.

The intensification of SRCC risks in the United States has become particularly striking to industry observers. According to data from Verisk Maplecroft focused on the late 2025 to early 2026 window, the U.S. has claimed the top spot among Western democracies for the highest SRCC risk and is ranked fifth globally across all nations. Torbjørn Soltvedt of Verisk Maplecroft points out that the extreme levels of political division and polarization in the U.S., combined with a general increase in protest activity, heighten the probability of significant incidents where peaceful demonstrations can rapidly escalate into violent and destructive clashes.

By the onset of 2026, the risk environment in the United States was evaluated by Verisk Maplecroft as being comparable to the volatile conditions seen at the start of 2020. This data suggests a significant erosion of the long-standing perception of the U.S. as a "safe haven" for global capital. Stephen M. Davis of the Harvard Law School has noted that this shift is driven by persistent "political volatility," indicating that the institutional stability once expected from the American market is being undermined by internal social and political pressures.

The market's institutional response has been characterized by a complete overhaul of underwriting methodologies and pricing structures. As early as 2023, Howden Re documented that insurers were beginning to levy "significant additional premiums" specifically for SRCC-related coverage. In 2024, Lloyd's of London introduced a dedicated code for SRCC to isolate these specific risks from traditional terrorism threats, allowing for more precise tracking and capital allocation. By 2025, Verisk had released the first-ever catastrophe model specifically designed for SRCC in the U.S., and the planned 2026 launch of "Verisk Synergy Studio" further emphasizes the industry's move toward applying the same rigorous scientific methodology to political risks as it does to natural disasters like hurricanes or earthquakes.

Srdjan Todorovic of Allianz Commercial has stated that recent major global events have effectively "brought the market to its senses" regarding a class of business that was previously dismissed as niche. The persistent geopolitical tensions, further inflamed by the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with the expansion of hybrid warfare—including sabotage and sophisticated cyberattacks—maintain a high expectation for losses throughout 2026, per Howden Re's analysis. Richard Miller of Howden Re asserts that Political Violence (PV) and SRCC have transitioned from peripheral concerns to the very heart of capital management and underwriting decisions. While global insured catastrophe losses have consistently topped $100 billion annually during this decade, the industry is now forced to integrate political violence modeling into its standard operational protocols, acknowledging that civil unrest has become a permanent and defining feature of the global risk landscape.