Near-Miss Between CAS Space Rocket Debris and Starlink Satellite Highlights LEO Collision Risks

Escalating congestion within Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is significantly increasing the potential for catastrophic in-space collisions, a systemic issue brought into sharp focus by a recent close encounter. On June 9, 2025, a satellite deployed by the Chinese commercial entity CAS Space narrowly avoided a collision with a SpaceX Starlink satellite. The Kinetica-1 rocket, launched by CAS Space, carried a manifest of nine satellites into orbit.

Mike Nichols, Vice President of Starlink Engineering at SpaceX, reported that one of the newly deployed objects passed within 200 meters of the STARLINK-6079 satellite at an approximate altitude of 560 kilometers. Nichols specifically noted that the SpaceX team did not receive precise trajectory data for the Chinese satellite, which is essential for proactive collision prevention. He asserted that the most significant hazard in the current operational climate stems from insufficient coordination between various satellite operators.

CAS Space confirmed utilizing its proprietary monitoring system for collision avoidance and stated communication occurred with SpaceX before launch, anticipating a potential close approach due to the deployment timing. Furthermore, CAS Space suggested that if confirmed, the event transpired approximately 48 hours after the conclusion of the scheduled deorbiting mission, meaning the launch phase was technically considered over. The Kinetica-1 rocket, a solid-propellant light launcher developed by CAS Space, a subsidiary of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is capable of placing approximately 2 tons into LEO. The launch occurred from Launch Area 130 at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Northwestern China.

This incident exemplifies a broader challenge as LEO traffic intensifies. Projections indicate that by the close of 2025, the Starlink constellation alone is anticipated to constitute the dominant portion of active objects, numbering over 9,300 satellites. Data from 2024 showed each Starlink satellite executed collision avoidance maneuvers nearly 300 times daily, doubling the frequency observed in 2023. Experts calculate that close approaches, defined as separations under one kilometer, occur every 22 seconds across all megaconstellations, with Starlink facing such proximity events every 11 minutes.

The proliferation of large networks, including SpaceX's planned third generation of Starship deployments in 2026 and competing systems from Amazon and Viasat, intensifies this orbital density. This environment strengthens the specter of the Kessler Syndrome, a scenario where collisions trigger an exponential cascade of debris, potentially rendering LEO unusable. This concept, first proposed by NASA scientists Donald J. Kessler and Burton G. Cour-Palais in 1978, warns of a runaway chain reaction where impact fragments create more debris faster than atmospheric drag can remove it.

To mitigate this risk to the sustainability of space activities, enhanced measures are imperative, including refinement of collision avoidance systems and the establishment of an international data exchange mechanism, such as the 'Space Traffic Coordination API' developed by SpaceX in collaboration with NASA's Ames Research Center. The current manual coordination via calls or emails between ground teams is proving inadequate for the current operational cadence. As Mike Nichols articulated, the inability of operators to communicate effectively means the next close approach could carry catastrophic implications for the future infrastructure of space access. The increasing traffic, with LEO congestion rising 76 percent between 1,370 objects in 2019 to 24,185 by 2025, necessitates a global consensus on data transparency to safeguard this vital domain.