Gaza Peace Plan Enters Second Phase Amid Hamas Disarmament Dispute

The second phase of the comprehensive Gaza peace plan, initiated by the Trump administration, officially commenced on January 14, 2026, shifting international focus toward demilitarization, the establishment of technocratic governance, and the start of reconstruction efforts within the enclave. This transition was formalized by U.S. Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff, followed by an official declaration from President Donald Trump on January 15, 2026.

Central to this new phase is the formal establishment of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which convened its first meeting in Cairo, Egypt, on January 16, 2026, to assume management of civil services. The committee comprises 15 Palestinian technocrats, chaired by Ali Shaath, a former Deputy Minister in the Palestinian Authority, who will oversee the daily administration of Gaza. Nikolay Mladenov, the former UN envoy for Middle East peace, serves as the High Representative, linking the NCAG to the overarching Board of Peace chaired by President Trump.

Implementation faces immediate friction as Hamas has reportedly refused comprehensive disarmament, signaling an intention to retain small arms despite warnings from Washington. Security tensions persist, with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reporting a minimum of 78 ceasefire violations since the initial truce began on October 10, 2025. An attack on an Israeli tank in Rafah on January 13, 2026, prompted renewed Israeli strikes on January 15, 2026. Israel estimates Hamas possesses tens of thousands of rifles, and further Israeli withdrawal east of the 'Yellow Line' is reportedly contingent upon tangible progress in the disarmament process.

Concurrently, the geopolitical landscape is being reshaped by diplomatic maneuvers surrounding the crisis in Iran, where the U.S. has softened its aggressive rhetoric following assurances from Tehran regarding the halt of planned executions of anti-government protesters. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi publicly stated on January 15, 2026, that "Hanging is out of the question" for protester sentences, after President Trump claimed to have received assurances from "very important sources on the other side." This de-escalation followed an Iranian warning to regional countries hosting U.S. bases against potential strikes.

China is actively leveraging the perceived assertiveness of the U.S. in both the Middle East and Latin America to promote its vision of global stability. Following the U.S. military operation on January 3, 2026, that resulted in the removal of President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi communicated to Araghchi that China opposes the use or threat of force and rejects the "law of the jungle," positioning Beijing for a "constructive role" in easing tensions. China, which secured over 80% of Iran's oil exports, faces economic pressure from a new 25% U.S. tariff on trade with entities dealing with Iran, while its significant investments in Venezuela, estimated between $60 and $100 billion, suffered a strategic setback with Maduro's ousting.

Regional powers, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, are navigating this tension with apprehension, fearing that a state collapse in Iran could generate greater regional chaos than a weakened regime. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan explicitly opposed any military intervention against Iran, insisting that Tehran must resolve its internal matters diplomatically. The Iranian internet blackout, which began on January 8, 2026, has complicated verification efforts regarding the death toll estimates from the protests. The International Stabilization Force (ISF), intended to support the Gaza transition, is also encountering difficulties, with U.S. officials assessing that Indonesia and Morocco are expected to supply the majority of the necessary troops. The entire framework remains under intense scrutiny regarding its ability to enforce Hamas disarmament, the most significant sticking point to the full realization of the peace architecture.