Trilateral Ukraine Negotiations in Abu Dhabi: Second Round Seeks Peace Amid Escalation

On February 4, 2026, the capital of the United Arab Emirates became the focal point of international diplomacy as the second round of trilateral negotiations commenced between representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States. These high-stakes discussions aim to find a resolution to a conflict that has spanned nearly four years. While Ukrainian officials described the initial closed-door sessions as "productive" and "substantive," a definitive breakthrough remains elusive. The urgency is heightened by the fact that the New START treaty, the final major nuclear arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow, is set to expire on February 5, prompting Russia to signal potential "countermeasures" in its nuclear posture.

This current diplomatic effort follows an initial round held in Abu Dhabi on January 23–24, 2026, which was characterized as "constructive" despite the lack of immediate results. The initiative is a cornerstone of President Donald Trump’s administration, which has positioned itself as a primary mediator in the war that began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. The UAE continues to serve as a neutral host, providing secure venues such as the Al Shati Palace, where strict media restrictions are maintained to facilitate private dialogue.

The diplomatic process is unfolding against a backdrop of intensified military activity. On February 3 and 4, Russian forces launched massive strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid, contradicting earlier suggestions from the Trump administration regarding a "week-long pause" in such attacks supposedly discussed with President Vladimir Putin. These recent assaults resulted in a tragic strike on a market in Druzhivka, Donetsk region, where cluster munitions killed at least seven people. Additional civilian infrastructure was hit in Odessa and other urban centers. In response, President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of "cynically exploiting" the diplomatic window, leading the Ukrainian team to adjust its negotiating stance. Meanwhile, the Kremlin maintains that its military operations will persist until Kyiv agrees to Russian terms, including the withdrawal of troops from the Donbas and the renunciation of claims to Crimea.

The physical arrangement of the talks reflects the delicate role of the mediators. Delegations are seated at a U-shaped table, with the American representatives positioned at the center to act as a "buffer" between the warring parties. Official photographs released by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirm this layout, showing the Ukrainian and Russian teams facing one another under the direct oversight of the U.S. delegation.

Leading the Ukrainian delegation is Rustem Umerov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), who serves as the primary negotiator. The team also includes Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Office of the President and former intelligence chief, alongside a group of high-ranking military and diplomatic officials. Their presence underscores Kyiv's focus on both security guarantees and strategic sovereignty.

In contrast, the Russian delegation is heavily weighted toward military leadership. It is headed by Igor Kostyukov, the chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (GU/GRU). This composition suggests that Moscow is prioritizing "military-technical" details, such as the establishment of contact lines and the specifics of troop withdrawals, over broader diplomatic concessions.

The American presence is represented by a high-profile team including Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Jared Kushner, the President’s son-in-law and informal advisor, and Daniel Driscoll, the Secretary of the Army. Their objective is to broker "practical steps" toward de-escalation. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the significance of the meeting, noting that this is the first time in a considerable period that technical experts from all three nations have engaged in direct, expert-level dialogue, which he described as a sign of progress.

Although the start of this round was delayed from the weekend due to "logistical issues," the sessions officially began on the morning of February 4. Rustem Umerov confirmed the start of the process via Telegram, stating that the trilateral format involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia was underway. Anonymous American sources also characterized the first day as "productive," suggesting a focused atmosphere despite the external hostilities.

The agenda for these talks is centered on several critical and contentious issues. According to insiders, the primary topics include:

• The separation of forces and the definition of contact lines to establish "buffer zones" between the opposing militaries.
• The post-war structure of Ukraine, involving discussions on neutrality and security guarantees that do not include NATO membership.
• The status of occupied regions, specifically the Donbas, Crimea, and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• Immediate de-escalation measures, such as a comprehensive ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, and the protection of energy infrastructure.

Territorial concessions remain the most significant hurdle. Russia continues to demand the full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk region. Ukraine has firmly rejected this, citing domestic polls that show a vast majority of citizens oppose any territorial compromises. President Zelensky reiterated this stance, declaring that while Ukraine seeks a "just and lasting peace," it will not be achieved at the expense of its sovereign land.

The Kremlin is utilizing the Abu Dhabi platform to push its "core" demands, which include permanent restrictions on NATO expansion. Russian negotiators have pointed to the "Alaska Summit" of 2025 as a foundational framework for these requirements. Analysts observe that Moscow appears unwilling to make significant concessions without receiving explicit "guarantees" from Western powers regarding its long-term security concerns.

Reactions to the talks vary significantly across the involved capitals. In Ukraine, there is a sense of cautious skepticism; while Umerov described the dialogue as "substantive and focused on concrete steps," Zelensky was forced to "recalibrate" the delegation's instructions following the recent wave of strikes. In Russia, the rhetoric remains uncompromising. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the "operation continues" unless Russian conditions are met, while the Foreign Ministry linked the talks to the expiration of New START, warning of a potential "nuclear arms race."

The United States maintains a more optimistic, though realistic, outlook. President Trump has noted an "openness" from both sides, and internal sources report incremental progress on specific points. On the international stage, the European Union and the United Nations have welcomed the dialogue but remain wary of the risks. Countries like France are reportedly considering the resumption of high-level contacts with Moscow, while NATO has increased its monitoring activities. The global tension is further complicated by the cancellation of planned U.S.-Iran talks, which were scheduled for February 6.

Experts do not anticipate an immediate comprehensive agreement. Potential outcomes range from a framework for a temporary springtime ceasefire to prolonged consultations or a total collapse of the process if military strikes continue to escalate. As noted by POLITICO, the results of these sessions will serve as a litmus test for Putin's seriousness regarding a peaceful resolution. A potential third round of negotiations may be announced following the conclusion of the meetings on February 5.