Moscow Warns Yerevan: EU Integration and EAEU Membership Are Mutually Exclusive

On February 5, 2026, high-level diplomatic talks took place in Moscow between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan. The primary focus of their discussion was Armenia's shifting geopolitical trajectory and its future alignment. During the meeting, Minister Lavrov delivered a blunt assessment, stating that Yerevan’s pursuit of European integration is "technically impossible" to reconcile with its continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). He argued that the fundamental operational principles of the two organizations are inherently at odds.

Despite this stern warning, the Russian side maintained that Moscow would ultimately respect any sovereign decision made by the Armenian people regarding their future. Speaker Simonyan articulated Armenia's current position, clarifying that Yerevan does not currently see a necessity to withdraw from the EAEU at this time. He expressed optimism that a middle ground could be found, allowing for mutually beneficial cooperation with both the European and Eurasian blocs, rather than a total departure from existing structures.

However, the dialogue also touched upon underlying frictions, as Simonyan raised concerns regarding unfriendly rhetoric found in Russian public media sources. This suggests a persistent tension in the information space despite official diplomatic assurances. Lavrov countered by criticizing the European Union’s approach to the post-Soviet region, describing Brussels' "either-or" logic as an inescapable pressure tactic. He emphasized that the EU frequently forces nations to choose sides, which he characterized as a divisive strategy in the region.

This diplomatic friction follows the signing of a Strategic Partnership Agenda between Armenia and the EU in Brussels on December 2, 2025. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has previously described this approach as a form of political hedging, moving toward the EU while maintaining EAEU membership until a definitive choice becomes unavoidable. Pashinyan has emphasized that any final resolution will be determined by the "free will of the Armenian people," while reassuring Moscow that Armenia will not participate in international projects directed against Russia.

In the context of economic cooperation, Lavrov cited data showing that Armenia's GDP grew from $10.5 billion in 2015 to $26 billion by 2025—a 2.5-fold increase since joining the EAEU. Over the decade, the nation's GDP rose by 60%, while GDP per capita surged by 120%, marking a record among member states. Additionally, Armenian exports to the EAEU expanded more than thirteenfold. Economic activity grew by 8.3% in the first eleven months of 2025, significantly outpacing the 5.1% budget forecast originally set for the year.

Sergey Minasyan, the Deputy Director of the Caucasus Institute, suggests that these geopolitical pressures are tied to the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, which remains ongoing as of February 2026. This conflict will fundamentally redefine Russia's future role and influence in the post-Soviet space. Consequently, the challenge of aligning with European standards while fulfilling EAEU obligations remains the central hurdle for Armenia's foreign policy. For now, the government in Yerevan continues its delicate attempt to delay a final, binary choice between East and West.