Myanmar's Staged Elections: The Military Junta's Bid for Legitimacy Amidst Ongoing Conflict

The military administration currently governing Myanmar has set in motion a series of multi-stage general elections, slated to commence on December 28, 2025. This marks the first electoral exercise of its kind since the military coup d'état executed on February 1, 2021. The voting process is meticulously scheduled across three distinct phases: December 28, 2025, followed by January 11, 2026, and concluding on January 25, 2026. This entire cycle is presented as a procedural necessity mandated by the 2008 Constitution, a document originally drafted by the preceding military regime to facilitate a formal transition from a state of emergency to a semblance of constitutional governance.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the ruling military administration, who formally assumed the title of President in July 2025 after the state of emergency was officially lifted, has adamantly insisted that these elections will proceed regardless of internal or external pressures. However, the backdrop for this voting is one of persistent violence and severe repression, naturally fostering deep skepticism on the international stage. Crucially, the polling will be restricted solely to territories under the direct control of the military, which amounts to less than half of the nation’s total area. The civilian populace faces a dual threat: the military is reportedly pressuring citizens to participate, while various armed opposition factions are issuing threats against anyone who dares to cast a ballot.

Significant political opposition has been systematically excised from the electoral landscape. Aung San Suu Kyi, the deposed leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), remains detained. Reports indicate she is currently serving an extensive prison sentence, which began following her sentencing in December 2021. The NLD, which achieved a resounding victory in the 2020 general election, declined to register under the junta’s newly imposed electoral laws, leading to its automatic dissolution in March 2023.

The international community, including the United Nations, has voiced profound apprehension, widely viewing the upcoming vote as a mere charade intended solely to rubber-stamp the continuation of military dominance. Tom Andrews, the UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Myanmar, has explicitly stated that the junta is attempting to manufacture the appearance of a legitimate electoral event. While Western governments have made their disapproval clear, the response from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has remained notably cautious. The geopolitical currents reveal a clear division; China, for instance, is actively backing the electoral drive, supplying both technological resources and financial backing to foster a semi-legitimate government capable of resuming major infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative. Furthermore, observers have noted the presence of official delegations from both Russia and Belarus at the proceedings.

The nation continues to grapple with the effects of the civil war that erupted on May 5, 2021, following the violent suppression of post-coup protests. According to data compiled by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), violence stemming from the coup had resulted in the deaths of over 45,264 individuals by the beginning of 2024. The military leadership appears to anticipate that these carefully managed elections will serve as a mechanism to maintain effective control, cloaked under the guise of a 'disciplined democracy,' even as armed conflict rages across the country.