A New Paradigm for Ethereum Valuation: Shifting Towards a Global Public Good Status

Toward the close of 2025, a significant conceptual argument emerged from discussions initiated on the official Ethereum X social media account. Investor and author William Mougayar put forth the thesis that Ethereum is undergoing a transformation into a global public good, comparable in stature to foundational systems like the Internet or GPS. This proposed new framework necessitates moving beyond conventional metrics, such as transaction throughput or gas fees, because these measures fail to capture the network’s true systemic value. Mougayar contends that Ethereum operates as a 'value protocol,' distinct from the Internet, which serves as an 'information protocol,' yet both fulfill the role of neutral foundational layers essential for worldwide coordination.

The network’s infrastructural robustness has been significantly bolstered by recent technological upgrades. This includes the Pectra hard fork, which went live in May 2025, and the subsequent Fusaka hard fork, activated on December 3, 2025. The Fusaka upgrade, in particular, was instrumental, raising the gas limit to 150 million and driving average Layer 2 fees below $0.02. This improvement was achieved through enhanced data throughput facilitated by PeerDAS technology. This evolution underscores a critical point: Ethereum's true competition is not other blockchains, but rather the existing 'status quo of global coordination.'

To accurately appraise this public utility nature, Mougayar introduced a three-part valuation model that deliberately diverges from standard market capitalization assessments. The first element is 'Captured Value,' which incorporates traditional metrics; as of December 2025, this component was estimated to range between $0.6 trillion and $0.9 trillion. The second part is 'Flow Value,' which quantifies the annual economic activity that relies upon the network. This metric shows significant breadth, fluctuating between $300 billion and $3 trillion yearly, with some data suggesting dependent flows could exceed $50 trillion annually.

Perhaps the most innovative aspect of this framework is the 'Trust Surplus.' This metric attempts to quantify the economic benefit derived from reduced friction and inherent risk mitigation across global economic operations, placing its value between $150 billion and $600 billion. This concept captures the intangible value that critical infrastructure systems deliver before markets fully price it in. Consequently, based on this comprehensive analysis, the aggregated intrinsic value of Ethereum at the end of 2025 was calculated to be between $2 trillion and $6 trillion. This figure stands in stark contrast to its market capitalization, which hovered around $400 billion during the same period.

Institutional adoption serves as compelling evidence of this shift, moving beyond mere experimentation toward substantive, real-world deployment. A prime example is JPMorgan’s launch of the MONY tokenized money market fund on the Ethereum network, which invests directly in U.S. Treasury securities. This move signals that major financial entities are increasingly viewing public blockchains as essential infrastructure for managing liquidity. Mougayar’s analysis, which has received endorsement from the official Ethereum account, compels a serious re-evaluation of how to properly value an asset whose worth stems primarily from its systemic utility and its function as a neutral settlement layer.