Syria Marks First Post-Assad Anniversary Amid Reconstruction Hopes and Sectarian Challenges

Syria is observing the first anniversary of the end of the al-Assad dynasty’s rule on December 8, 2025, marking the conclusion of a 14-year civil war that began in 2011. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s nearly 25-year tenure followed a rapid offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in late November 2024, which led to the Syrian army yielding major cities including Aleppo, Hama, and Homs before rebel forces secured Damascus. Former President Bashar al-Assad was reportedly taken into custody by Russian forces and is currently in exile in Moscow.

Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly the HTS leader, was formally installed on January 29, 2025, overseeing a period characterized by initial optimism juxtaposed with persistent internal fragility. The anniversary is being commemorated with civilian and military parades, including planned flower-dropping events by the Ministry of Defense to symbolize a definitive break from the past. Initial progress under the Syrian Transitional Government, established on March 29, 2025, includes the cessation of active front lines and the lifting of an atmosphere where mentioning foreign currency could lead to arrest.

Diplomatic isolation is receding, highlighted by Interim President al-Sharaa’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on November 10, 2025, which resulted in the suspension of sanctions under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act for an additional 180 days. The International Monetary Fund has reported signs of economic recovery following a staff visit to Damascus, supported by improved electricity provision in urban areas. Despite these political and diplomatic advancements, the transition remains precarious, threatened by deep internal fractures and a slow pace of accountability.

A significant challenge remains the resurgence of sectarian violence, with documented massacres targeting Alawite civilians in March 2025 and Druze civilians in July 2025. These clashes underscore the profound societal divisions exacerbated by the preceding conflict, with over 3,400 fatalities attributed to sectarian violence since Assad’s fall. Critics maintain that the transitional justice process is advancing too slowly, which risks fueling grievances and jeopardizing the opportunity to deliver justice for past atrocities.

On the demographic front, the return of displaced populations presents a complex development. Since December 8, 2024, up to 1,260,240 individuals have returned from abroad, and 1,950,090 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have returned to their areas of origin as of late November 2025. The Central Bank Governor has connected the return of approximately 1.5 million refugees to boosting economic growth. However, the sustainability of these returns is hampered by a lack of basic services, with 16.5 million people requiring aid in 2025. The UNHCR reports that while 80 percent of surveyed refugees intend to return, many face barriers accessing housing, employment, and documentation, requiring shelter support for over 7 million people nationwide.

President Sharaa has called upon Syrians to unite in the monumental task of rebuilding a ‘strong and just Syria’ during the planned five-year transitional period before new elections. The government is actively restructuring governance and has initiated public trials, such as one in Aleppo involving fourteen suspects from the March coastal violence, signaling that accountability may extend even to government-affiliated actors. The success of this transition, however, hinges on the government’s capacity to manage territorial fragmentation, particularly concerning areas administered by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast, and to effectively prosecute abuses, which observers note have been poorly managed by sympathetic forces.