Syria Marks One Year Since Assad's Ouster Amid Reconstruction and Sectarian Tensions

On December 8, 2025, Syrians marked the one-year anniversary of the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime, an event that concluded the nearly 14-year civil war which began in 2011. The transition followed a swift offensive in late November 2024, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which rapidly saw the collapse of Syrian army positions in Aleppo, Hama, and Homs before rebel forces took Damascus. Bashar al-Assad fled the capital on December 8, 2024, and is currently living in exile in Moscow under strict Russian supervision.

The post-regime transition saw the appointment of Ahmed al-Sharaa as interim President on January 29, 2025, following his de facto leadership since the fall of Damascus. Military and civilian parades were held in symbolic locations like Umayyad Square in Damascus and Aleppo to mark the end of nearly 25 years of authoritarian rule. This period of change has seen initial positive developments, including the return of approximately 1.2 million refugees and 1.9 million internally displaced persons, with the central bank governor noting that the returnees are contributing to economic growth.

Despite these steps, the country faces significant humanitarian and security hurdles. As of 2025, an estimated 16.5 million people still require aid. Furthermore, deep societal fractures have manifested as persistent sectarian violence. Massacres targeting Alawite civilians were reported in March 2025, and subsequent clashes between Druze and Bedouin groups in the south resulted in a massacre of Druze civilians in July 2025. Critics suggest the slow pace of transitional justice risks eroding confidence in the new administration.

The Syrian Transitional Government, established on March 29, 2025, is focused on restructuring governance and advancing transitional justice over a planned five-year period leading up to new elections. In a move toward international reintegration, President Sharaa held a historic meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in November 2025, the first such visit to the White House by a Syrian head of state since 1946. This engagement led to the United States suspending sanctions under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act for 180 days, a measure seen as vital for economic recovery, with the EU and UK also easing restrictions.

The scale of the challenge ahead is underscored by the World Bank's assessment, which estimates the total cost of reconstruction—covering infrastructure, residential, and non-residential buildings damaged between 2011 and 2024—to be between $140 billion and $345 billion, with a conservative midpoint estimate of $216 billion. The long-term stability of Syria will depend on the government's ability to broaden its authority beyond its core supporters and effectively address the ongoing demands for accountability and social cohesion.