Physicist Avi Loeb Formalizes $1,000 Wager on Extraterrestrial Confirmation by 2030

Harvard astrophysicist Dr. Avi Loeb has formalized a $1,000 wager with Dr. Michael Shermer, a noted science historian and publisher of Skeptic magazine. This agreement was established through the Long Bets program, which is managed by the Long Now Foundation. The core of their dispute hinges on whether there will be official confirmation of extraterrestrial life or technology by the deadline of December 31, 2030. Loeb, who also directs the Galileo Project Foundation, maintains a strong conviction that a discovery is imminent, while Shermer adopts a decidedly skeptical stance.

The terms of the bet are quite specific regarding Loeb’s victory conditions. For him to win, a minimum of two out of three key organizations—NASA, the National Science Foundation (NSF), or the American Astronomical Society (AAS)—must officially validate the detection of extraterrestrial intelligence. This validation could pertain to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP), technological artifacts, or biological entities. Should the outcome favor either party, the loser is obligated to donate the $1,000 to the Galileo Project Foundation. This structure effectively shifts the focus away from personal financial gain and toward bolstering scientific research efforts.

Loeb’s optimism is largely fueled by the recent appearance of the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, which was first spotted on July 1, 2025. This marks the third such object observed passing through our Solar System. Loeb suggests that certain characteristics of 3I/ATLAS, particularly its non-gravitational acceleration, point toward a possible artificial origin. The object reached perihelion on October 29, 2025, at a distance of 1.36 astronomical units (AU) from the Sun, traveling at approximately 68 km/s. Its hyperbolic trajectory confirmed its extrasolar provenance. Furthermore, observations made by the Hubble Space Telescope on August 20, 2025, estimated the nucleus diameter to be somewhere between 440 meters and 5.6 kilometers.

Conversely, NASA presented its findings during a briefing on November 19, 2025, featuring Deputy Administrator Amit Kshatriya. At this event, NASA concluded that 3I/ATLAS is, in fact, a comet that is behaving like a typical comet, despite exhibiting unusual luminescence. Loeb, formerly the head of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, points out that the systematic search for technological artifacts gained serious momentum in 2025 with the activation of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the deployment of the Galileo Project observatories. He frequently cites statistics suggesting billions of Earth-like planets exist within our Galaxy, making interstellar traffic, in his view, an inevitability.

The decision to place this wager on the Long Bets platform—an initiative launched in 2003 by Stewart Brand and Kevin Kelly—serves as a strategic move to draw public attention to the Galileo Project. The project’s primary goal is to rigorously differentiate genuine anomalous objects from routine space debris. If Loeb proves correct, it would represent a monumental discovery confirming the existence of intelligence beyond Earth. If Shermer prevails, the result simply underscores the ongoing need for continued searching, perhaps utilizing even more advanced observational tools in the future.