Coalition Finalizes Conditional Security Guarantees for Ukraine in Paris Summit

Representatives from thirty-five nations forming the "Coalition of the Willing," alongside senior envoys from the United States, convened in Paris on Tuesday, January 6, 2026, to formalize a structure of security guarantees for Ukraine. These commitments are explicitly contingent upon the successful establishment of a future ceasefire agreement with the Russian Federation. The summit followed preparatory discussions, including meetings of national security advisors in Kyiv over the preceding weekend, aimed at solidifying a unified Western and US position ahead of further engagement with Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer executed a trilateral 'Declaration of Intent' during the proceedings, specifically addressing the post-hostilities deployment of a multinational stabilization force. President Macron stated that this 'Paris Declaration' is designed to ensure that any achieved peace does not translate into a Ukrainian capitulation or a scenario that permits a renewed threat from Russia. The declaration formally acknowledged an "operational convergence" among the coalition members, the US, and Ukraine regarding the nature of these comprehensive security assurances.

US representatives, including Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, confirmed strong American endorsement for the newly established security protocols. Witkoff reported "significant progress" on a bilateral security guarantee framework and a related prosperity plan. The agreements mandate long-term military provisioning, consistent weapons delivery, and the creation of a 'Multinational Force for Ukraine' intended to facilitate army reconstruction and long-term deterrence capabilities. This post-ceasefire contingent is conceptualized as a 'reassurance force,' explicitly designed to maintain peace rather than engage in active combat operations.

President Macron suggested that potentially "thousands of French soldiers" could be integrated into this force, which may also involve establishing military 'hubs' for secure storage of equipment. The commitments outlined are broad, potentially encompassing military capabilities, intelligence sharing, logistical support, and the implementation of further sanctions against Russia should any breach of the agreement occur. Further cementing long-term defense cooperation, the declaration includes provisions for joint industrial production and enhanced training initiatives. The allies reached a consensus for the United States to chair a critical mechanism dedicated to monitoring any future ceasefire implementation, a key element intended to provide accountability.

This framework deliberately contrasts with the less stringent assurances provided under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, offering binding commitments should Ukraine face renewed aggression. While the US commitment rules out full NATO Article 5-style defense clause membership, it does include binding support in the event of an attack. Key European partners detailed their contributions: the UK and France affirmed plans to deploy troops and establish 'military hubs' across Ukraine for protected weapons storage and military regeneration post-conflict. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz indicated that Germany might contribute forces, though these would be stationed in a NATO-adjacent area outside of Ukrainian territory. Spain, represented by President Pedro Sánchez, signaled readiness to commit its Armed Forces to the proposed peace mission.

Conversely, Russia, through Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, had previously issued a warning that any European troop contingents stationed in Ukraine would constitute legitimate targets for Russian armed forces. The framework is seen as a necessary evolution, especially as Ukrainian leadership has previously cited the failure of the Budapest Memorandum, which offered only assurances in exchange for relinquishing nuclear weapons, as evidence of the need for concrete, legally binding security architecture. Discussions also touched upon a 'prosperity agreement,' though specific details regarding entities like BlackRock or Larry Fink were not finalized within the immediate context of the security plan.