Gold Recovers as Softer US Inflation Data Fuels Rate Cut Optimism

International precious metals surged on Friday, February 13, 2026, following the release of lower-than-expected United States inflation figures. Gold futures for April delivery closed near USD 5,046.30 per troy ounce, marking a daily gain of nearly 2.00%. This rebound signals renewed market optimism regarding potential interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve later in the year. Silver March futures also recovered robustly, settling around USD 77.964 per troy ounce, an increase exceeding 3.00% for the session.

The primary catalyst for the market shift was the report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which detailed that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 cooled to 2.4% year-over-year, falling short of the 2.5% consensus forecast. This deceleration in price pressures immediately eased expectations for aggressive monetary policy, consequently pressuring the US dollar index and supporting non-yielding assets like gold. Metals trader Tai Wong observed that the less aggressive January CPI data helped precious metals rebound after earlier concerns sparked by a strong employment report.

Earlier in the week, the US saw an increase of 130,000 jobs in January, surpassing the expectation of 70,000 new positions, which had complicated the monetary outlook. Reflecting the international trend, domestic Indian gold April futures on the MCX appreciated by 2.00% to approximately Rs 1,55,895 per 10 grams as of February 16, 2026. Analysts attribute the current volatility to the combination of cooling inflation metrics and prevailing geopolitical factors.

Market participants are now largely anticipating that the Federal Reserve will implement approximately 75 basis points of rate cuts throughout 2026, potentially commencing in July. This expectation supports gold, as the asset gains attractiveness when the cost of borrowing is projected to decrease. Despite the Friday rally, gold prices consolidated early the following week, trading near $5,012.12 per ounce on Monday, February 16, 2026, as investors awaited the release of the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation print and the fourth quarter of 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

Longer-term institutional outlooks remain positive, with Deutsche Bank maintaining a base case forecast for gold at $6,000 per ounce for 2026, citing structural demand from persistent central bank buying. Goldman Sachs also sees meaningful upside risk to its December 2026 forecast of $5,400 per ounce. In the Indian consumer market, price corrections were interpreted as opportune buying moments, evidenced by Titan Company reporting a 42% year-on-year income rise in its jewellery segment for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. Titan’s overall consolidated net profit for Q3 FY26 surged by 61% to Rs 1,684 crore, with jewellery revenue growing 42% YoY to Rs 22,517 crore, demonstrating resilience despite price fluctuations.