US and Mexico Resolve Water Dispute Stemming from 1944 Treaty

The governments of Mexico and the United States successfully reached a mutual understanding on December 12, 2025, aimed at strengthening water resource management under the framework of the 1944 Water Treaty. This resolution served to de-escalate significant diplomatic and trade friction that had been building due to demands for immediate water deliveries and threats of imposing tariffs.

The 1944 Treaty is the cornerstone of bilateral cooperation, governing the allocation of waters from the Colorado, Rio Grande, and Tijuana rivers. However, its implementation has become increasingly challenging due to persistent drought conditions. The immediate spark for the recent crisis involved public statements from then-US President Donald Trump, who accused Mexico of failing to meet its treaty obligations. Trump contended that Mexico owed the US a minimum of 800,000 acre-feet of water based on the preceding five-year cycle’s accounting. The threat accompanying this accusation was the potential imposition of a 5% tariff on Mexican imports, a move that pushed negotiations beyond the technical scope traditionally handled by the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC).

In direct response to this mounting pressure, the Mexican government committed to releasing 249.163 million cubic meters of water—equivalent to approximately 202,000 acre-feet—to the United States, with deliveries scheduled to commence on December 15, 2025. This commitment came at a time when, as of October 24, 2025, Mexico had only supplied 50.6% of the volume required for the current cycle. In a joint communiqué, the Mexican delegation asserted that they had “not committed any breach” of the treaty, emphasizing that previous supplementary deliveries had been made without compromising domestic consumption needs.

A crucial component of the finalized agreement addresses the settlement of the accumulated deficit from the previous water cycle, which concluded in October 2025. The 1944 Treaty stipulates that Mexico must deliver, on average, no less than 350,000 acre-feet of water to the US over a five-year period (totaling 1.75 million acre-feet). Conversely, the United States is obligated annually to supply Mexico with 1.5 million acre-feet of water originating from the Colorado River. Both nations have agreed to finalize a comprehensive plan designed to manage future deficits and enhance bilateral coordination no later than January 31, 2026.

The delays in water delivery had already exacted a heavy toll on the American side. Estimates suggest that Texas farmers alone were facing annual economic losses approaching $1 billion. Furthermore, the closure of the sole sugar mill in the Rio Grande area in early 2024 was directly linked to the water shortage. US Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, acknowledged that Mexico had delivered more water in the last year than in the preceding four years combined, viewing this as a positive step toward rebuilding trust. The successful resolution of this contentious issue successfully averted a potential escalation in trade relations between the two neighbors.