Regional Dust Storm Modeling Underscores Need for Transboundary Air Quality Cooperation

New atmospheric modeling, specifically employing the RAMS/ICLAMS system, presented during the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) COP16 proceedings, has confirmed the critical transboundary nature of Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) impacting Central Asia. This scientific data indicates that effective mitigation requires strategies that extend beyond national boundaries to address the widespread regional effects of these phenomena.

Research suggests that substantial vegetation restoration efforts could significantly curb airborne dust concentrations, potentially achieving reductions up to 80% in primary source regions during peak dust months. This finding positions nature-based solutions as a central component of regional environmental policy. Critically, data analysis reveals that up to 70% of the atmospheric dust burden observed over Uzbekistan originates from external sources, highlighting the inherent limitations of purely domestic countermeasures.

In response to this transboundary challenge, Uzbekistan established a national reduction program covering 2024 to 2028, explicitly requiring robust regional collaboration and the implementation of joint early-warning systems. This emphasis on coordinated action aligns with the broader Regional Strategy for Sand and Dust Storms Management in Central Asia for 2021–2030, which prioritizes joint efforts, particularly within the Aral Sea basin. The necessity for an integrated regional response was a key discussion point at COP16, which convened in Riyadh in December, where the Samarkand Declaration on Dust and Sand Storms was considered, reflecting a shared commitment among nations to jointly counteract these events.

Bakhriddin Nishonov, Head of the laboratory at the Research Hydrometeorological Institute, noted that the declaration stresses the development of research and technology for prevention and reduction, alongside establishing effective monitoring and early warning systems. The event, organized by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) as part of the “Day of Science, Technology and Innovation,” included participation from Uzbekistan and experts from the World Meteorological Organization.

Domestically, Uzbekistan's government decree issued in 2024 aims for a 50% reduction in severe dust storm frequency by 2028, supported by modernizing air quality monitoring with assistance from the Zamin Foundation. However, local pollution in cities like Termez is also driven by factors such as fossil-fuel heating, traffic, and agricultural practices, as detailed in a report prepared for Uzbekistan's National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change in cooperation with the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Uzbekistan's National Program for 2024-2030 further includes expanding green coverings and implementing advanced technologies to mitigate pulverulent and sandstorms, alongside geobotanical inspection of pastures to stabilize soil.

Globally, the scale of the issue is significant, with approximately 2 billion tons of sand and dust entering the atmosphere annually, 25% of which is attributed to human activities. The UNCCD's overarching goal, reinforced at COP16, is to restore 1.5 billion hectares of degraded land by 2030, a substantial undertaking given that land degradation currently affects over 3.2 billion people worldwide. For Central Asia, where over 80% of the territory comprises deserts and steppes, unsustainable agricultural practices and land degradation are major anthropogenic sources exacerbating SDS, making the regional commitment to vegetation restoration, as modeled by the RAMS/ICLAMS system, a vital strategic imperative for regional stability and public health.