Trump Imposes 25% Tariffs on Iran Amid Protests; Taiwan Nears Comprehensive U.S. Trade Deal

On Monday, January 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced the direct imposition of a 25% import tariff on any nation trading with the Islamic Republic of Iran. This decision escalates economic pressure as the United States monitors widespread anti-government demonstrations across Iran. The President declared the order "final and conclusive," instantly raising costs for American importers from affected countries. The protests in Iran, initially sparked by severe economic conditions, have broadened into significant demands for the overthrow of the clerical order established since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Human rights organizations have provided diverging casualty figures related to the unrest. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported confirming 490 protester deaths and 48 security personnel fatalities, alongside over 10,000 arrests linked to the disturbances. Conversely, the Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) confirmed a minimum of 648 fatalities, including nine minors, and cautioned that the actual toll could surpass 6,000. The White House's primary stated response remains diplomacy, though military options are reportedly under consideration, according to a statement from President Trump.

This trade maneuver occurs while the U.S. Supreme Court reviews the legality of broad tariffs previously enacted by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. Economists project that these new tariffs, when added to existing levies, could cause a "significant shock" to the United States economy. The Supreme Court's ruling on the IEEPA tariffs is anticipated before mid-2026 and addresses fundamental questions regarding the delegation of tariff-setting authority to the President.

In a separate geopolitical development, Taiwan announced on Tuesday, January 13, 2026, that it had reached a "general consensus" with the United States on a comprehensive trade agreement. These discussions commenced in April 2025 after President Trump initially imposed a 32% tariff on Taiwanese exports, which was subsequently reduced to 20%. The near-final agreement would lower U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese imports from 20% to 15%, aligning them with the rates granted to Japan and South Korea following their similar agreements last year.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) plays a central role in this accord, committing to build a minimum of five additional semiconductor fabrication plants in Arizona. This commitment supplements existing plans for six facilities, potentially bringing their total manufacturing investment in the state to over $300 billion. Taiwan's primary objective in the negotiations was to secure "reciprocal tariff reduction without tariff stacking" and preferential treatment under Section 232 for semiconductors. Both sides are currently discussing a schedule for the final meeting, which is projected to occur before the end of January 2026. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has also pledged to increase U.S. investment and raise defense spending to secure favorable terms, including a proposed supplemental budget of $40 billion over eight years, targeting defense spending at 3.3% of GDP in 2026.

Meanwhile, China, through its embassy in Washington, criticized the unilateral actions, expressing rejection of "unlawful unilateral sanctions" and warning that "tariff wars and trade wars have no winners." Tensions in the Taiwan Strait, including live-fire exercises conducted by China in December, have heightened concerns regarding potential disruptions to global supply chains should conflict arise.