Bitcoin Experiences Major Capitulation Amid Macro Headwinds, Analyst Warns of Deeper Correction

The cryptocurrency market recorded one of its most significant capitulation events in Bitcoin's history, with realized net losses averaging $2.3 billion over the seven days concluding on Thursday, February 12, 2026. This period of intense selling pressure draws comparisons to sharp market corrections, including the 2021 downturn and the Terra/Luna collapse in 2022, which saw a realized net loss of $2.7 billion in a single day.

On Friday, February 13, 2026, Bitcoin traded near $66,409, marking a substantial decline from its all-time high above $126,000 achieved in October 2025. The asset had previously tested lows near $60,000 on February 6, 2026, highlighting a period of acute volatility. The broader crypto market has seen its aggregate capitalization shrink by over $2 trillion since peaking in October 2025, with Bitcoin alone correcting by approximately 46% from its peak.

This market pressure is unfolding within a complex investment environment where investors are re-evaluating risk assets due to elevated equity valuations and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, which has also precipitated sharp corrections in related technology and artificial intelligence stocks. The intensity of the selling was underscored by a peak daily realized loss of $3.2 billion recorded on February 5, 2026. An analyst from CryptoQuant classified this event among the top three to five largest capitulation events ever recorded for BTC.

While historical precedent suggests that extreme spikes in realized losses often precede market reversals, analysts are urging caution, noting that this phase "could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out." On-chain indicators, such as the MVRV Adaptive Z-Score reading -2.66, confirm Bitcoin remains in a deep "capitulation zone," though some interpret this as a signal that a historical accumulation phase may be approaching.

Market participants remain divided on the market's floor. Nick Ruck, Director at LVRG Research, attributed the capitulation to "intense short-term holder panic and washout amid broader macro pressures and a shift into bear market territory," targeting potential support levels between $40,000 and $60,000. Other analysts project that the cycle low for the fourth quarter of 2026 could settle in the $40,000 to $50,000 range, consistent with historical patterns where BTC traded 24% to 30% below its realized price before stabilizing.

Major financial institutions are adjusting their outlooks. Standard Chartered has reduced its year-end 2026 forecast for Bitcoin from $150,000 to $100,000, while simultaneously warning that a correction to $50,000 might precede any long-term recovery. This current realization of losses near $67,000 is viewed by some analysts as a cleansing of more recent leverage, distinguishing it from the structural failures observed during the 2022 crisis.

Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have also shown distribution, with Glassnode data indicating a significant outflow of approximately 245,000 BTC on February 6, although LTH total holdings for 2026 still show an overall increase. The wider context involves global liquidity concerns, particularly the expectation that global interest rates will remain elevated longer due to Quantitative Tightening, which disproportionately affects risk assets like cryptocurrency. Market focus is now turning toward the direction of the new Federal Reserve Chair following Jerome Powell's tenure ending in May, as this will influence the liquidity environment for the next cycle in late Q4 2026 or early 2027.