Significant Decline in European Migration Metrics Reported for 2025

On January 19, 2026, the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) convened in Vienna to release its latest "Migration Outlook" report, providing a detailed analysis of the shifting migration landscape across Europe in 2025. The findings indicate a significant cooling of migration pressures, a trend that coincides with the European Union's intensive preparations for the full implementation of the Pact on Migration and Asylum, which is slated to take effect in June 2026.

Data from the ICMPD reveals that EU member states saw a 26 percent decline in irregular arrivals throughout 2025, while applications for asylum dropped by 21 percent. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted that these figures follow a substantial 37 percent decrease recorded in 2024 along primary migration corridors. Additionally, the rate of return for third-country nationals whose asylum bids were rejected reached 27 percent in 2025. Frontex statistics for the first eleven months of 2025 further support this trend, showing that total unauthorized entries into Europe fell to approximately 166,000 individuals.

A major catalyst for this statistical improvement was the collapse of the authoritarian regime in Syria in late 2024, which led to a dramatic reduction in new asylum requests from Syrian nationals. Susanne Raab, who took over as Director General of the ICMPD on January 1, 2026, pointed out that while the current data is positive, the root causes of global displacement remain highly volatile. With international conflicts reaching historic levels and affecting more than 87 countries, Raab cautioned that the downturn seen in 2025 might only be a temporary reprieve in a broader era of instability.

The ICMPD report, which outlines ten pivotal migration issues for 2026, suggests that the current reduction in numbers offers a vital window of opportunity for the practical rollout of the Pact on Migration and Asylum. Susanne Raab emphasized that Europe must utilize this "breathing space" to ensure operational readiness at its borders and to solidify fair, efficient return procedures. The successful implementation of the 2024 Pact is viewed as a definitive test for the EU in 2026, as it seeks to harmonize rules for the reception, screening, and repatriation of migrants across the bloc.

The analysis also highlights a "realistic turn" in migration policy, noting the increasing geopolitical importance of labor migration and a shift toward skills-based migration frameworks. However, the report notes that the Central Mediterranean route remains a point of concern, with illegal crossings from Libya increasing by 28 percent. Regarding Syria, since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, UNHCR data shows that over 58,400 refugees had returned to their homeland by the end of that month. Despite this, the ICMPD warns that ongoing local conflicts continue to create uncertainty regarding the feasibility of large-scale, long-term returns.