European Security Crisis: Munich Conference Debates Nuclear Deterrence After New START Expiration

The Munich Security Conference (MSC), which commenced on February 13, 2026, has rapidly evolved into a theater for an emergency overhaul of the European security architecture. At the absolute center of these high-stakes deliberations is the controversial and complex question of whether the continent must develop its own autonomous nuclear deterrent. This sudden strategic pivot is the direct result of persistent uncertainty regarding the long-term security guarantees provided by the United States, exacerbated by the official expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), also known as START-III, on February 5, 2026.

European capitals that have historically been the most vocal opponents of nuclear proliferation, such as Germany, Sweden, and Poland, are now deeply engaged in discussions on how to bridge the burgeoning "deterrence gap." High-level military meetings are currently focused on exploring these intricate and difficult options. The immediate catalyst for this seismic shift in strategic doctrine was the temporary suspension of intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine in March 2025. This specific event triggered a wave of skepticism among European allies concerning the reliability and consistency of Washington's commitments to regional stability.

The sense of urgency is compounded by the fact that New START was the final remaining pillar of arms control between Russia and the United States. Given that these two nations possess roughly 90% of the global nuclear inventory, the treaty's dissolution without a replacement mechanism has left the international community in a precarious position. Historically, the notion of a dedicated European nuclear deterrent was viewed as a political impossibility; however, in the current climate, it is being re-evaluated as a potential necessity for a continent seeking to maintain its defense integrity within a widening strategic vacuum.

French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to provide further clarity on this vision when he delivers a major policy speech on nuclear deterrence later this month. His address is anticipated to reinforce the central role of Paris in the defense of the continent. Various models are currently under review, many of which involve the expansion of the French nuclear umbrella, likely in close coordination with the United Kingdom. This follows a significant declaration in July 2025, where London confirmed the alignment of its independent nuclear forces with those of France. Data released by SIPRI in January 2025 suggests that the combined nuclear strength of the UK and France now exceeds 500 warheads.

While the push for autonomy grows, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte continues to emphasize the vital importance of the transatlantic bond. He has acknowledged a "real shift in thinking" regarding the necessity for stronger European defense, yet he insists these developments should occur within the existing NATO structure. Expert analysts at the conference have noted that the creation of a comprehensive, pan-European nuclear capability is a massive undertaking that could span at least a decade. This timeline makes immediate conventional military improvements and strategic political alignment absolutely critical for European survival in the short term.

The United States is monitoring these developments closely, represented at the MSC by a massive delegation headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The administration of President Donald Trump has previously expressed its intent to pursue a "more advantageous agreement" following the lapse of New START, with the hope of potentially bringing China into a new regulatory framework. This fundamental shift in American policy has created an unpredictable environment for European partners. In the absence of formal limits on the strategic arsenals of the US and Russia, the threat of a new global arms race is intensifying, forcing Europe to proactively assert its own interests to avoid being marginalized in future grand bargains between Washington and Moscow.