Bitcoin Recovers Above $86,000 Amid Conflicting Signals of Exchange Inflows and Profit-Taking

The cryptocurrency market experienced a period of significant turbulence when Bitcoin (BTC) prices dipped below the $80,000 threshold on Friday, November 21, 2025. This sharp decline coincided with an unusually high influx of assets onto centralized exchanges, a development that market analysts interpreted as a potential signal for investors to offload their holdings. However, by Sunday, November 23, the leading digital asset staged a robust comeback, surging past the $86,000 mark to touch approximately $86,070. This dramatic swing, which included reaching the lowest point seen since April 2025, threw the spotlight onto the delicate balance of global supply and demand dynamics for the cryptocurrency.

On-chain metrics strongly suggest that profit-taking activity was indeed underway. Ali Martinez, an analyst, referencing data from Santiment, highlighted that roughly 20,000 BTC, valued at nearly $2 billion, were transferred to centralized platforms over the preceding week. Further substantiating this trend, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, noted that the BTC inflow to exchanges on Friday, November 21, reached about 81,000 BTC. This figure represented the highest single-day inflow recorded since the middle of July. Historically, such spikes in exchange inflow, as tracked by the Exchange Inflow metric, signal an increase in available supply, which typically exerts downward pressure on prices unless demand steps in to absorb the volume.

Despite the brief but sharp downturn that erased a substantial portion of the year-to-date gains, countervailing forces were simultaneously at play in the market. On the very same day as the price slump, Friday, November 21, Bitcoin ETFs actually recorded net inflows, leading some market participants to speculate that a price floor might be forming. The American spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively saw a net inflow of $238.4 million, successfully breaking a three-week streak of net outflows. Specifically, Fidelity’s FBTC fund attracted $108 million, while Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) pulled in $84.9 million. This inflow into regulated funds, juxtaposed against the selling pressure signaled by exchange inflows, forms the central paradox defining the current market landscape.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, utilizing the PnL Index—a tool that analyzes profit and loss levels across all wallets—suggested that Bitcoin was entering a profit-taking phase. According to classical market cycles, this phase can sometimes foreshadow the beginning of a bear market. He pointed out that only significant macroeconomic liquidity injections have historically been potent enough to override such a profit-taking cycle, referencing the pattern observed back in 2020. This macroeconomic backdrop is further complicated by persistent uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy, as signals indicating that interest rates might remain elevated for an extended period have dampened hopes for a rate cut in December.

The market’s resilience, evidenced by its recovery to $86,070 by the close of the weekend, remains noteworthy, even against the backdrop of significant liquidations totaling $911 million that impacted 230,000 accounts during the week. Analysts have pointed to a stabilizing factor: over 95% of the assets held within Bitcoin ETFs are reportedly owned by investors aged 55 and older. This demographic concentration suggests a potentially more HODL-oriented investor base that may provide a stabilizing floor for BTC during periods of sharp correction. This contrast—short-term selling pressure manifesting via exchange deposits versus long-term accumulation through regulated vehicles—is defining the current market phase. The upcoming December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to be a crucial determinant for the market's next major move.