Bitcoin in January 2026: Hovering Near $90,500 Amidst Cyclical Debate

As the second week of January 2026 commenced, Bitcoin found itself consolidating its price around the $90,520 mark as of January 10, 2026. This stabilization followed a significant market correction late in 2025. The digital asset had previously peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 before experiencing a cascade of liquidations that pushed its value down close to $80,000. The current rebound appears to be supported by a broader recovery in global equity and commodity markets, signaling a renewed appetite for risk assets among investors.

A central point of contention shaping market sentiment for 2026 revolves around the continued relevance of the traditional four-year cycle tied to the Bitcoin halving event. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macroeconomics, suggests that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory is evolving. He posits that the asset is moving away from its historically steep power-law curve toward a pattern resembling the S-curve adoption characteristic of internet technologies. This structural shift bolsters the argument that the halving-based cycle may be becoming obsolete, with institutional adoption and the activity surrounding spot ETFs driving a new growth phase.

Analyst perspectives on the long-term implications of this shift are certainly not unified. While major firms such as VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase are forecasting a robust rally in 2026, potentially reaching $150,000, Timmer remains cautious about the complete disappearance of bear markets. Although he concurs that the influence of the halving is diminishing, he stops short of declaring that bearish phases are permanently behind the market. Conversely, Bernstein analysts contend that the increasing involvement of institutional capital and regulated infrastructure is inherently weakening the significance of previous cyclical frameworks that were heavily influenced by retail speculation.

From a technical standpoint, Timmer has identified two crucial support levels for Bitcoin. The first significant floor is situated at $65,000, corresponding to the previous cycle’s high. The second, more foundational long-term support level rests at $45,000, where the power-law trend line resides. It is noteworthy that should the asset enter a prolonged period of consolidation over the next year, that power-law line could potentially climb toward the $65,000 mark, effectively making that level a vital zone of interest.

Amid these structural debates, the flow dynamics within spot Bitcoin ETFs present a mixed picture. In the opening days of January 2026, these funds registered substantial net inflows, suggesting a resurgence of confidence among large-scale investors. For instance, on January 5, 2026, a net inflow of $694.67 million was recorded—the largest in three months—with BlackRock’s IBIT pulling in $371.89 million and Fidelity’s FBTC attracting $191.19 million. However, this positive trend proved fleeting; during the first full trading week of 2026, aggregate net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $681 million, indicating a shift in macroeconomic sentiment toward risk aversion. Earlier, analysts at CryptoQuant, notably Julio Moreno, had already concluded that Bitcoin entered a bear market phase back in early November 2025, based on the price falling below its one-year moving average.

Moreno projected a potential bear market bottom for the second half of 2026, likely falling within the $56,000 to $60,000 range. While this potential drop of 55% from the peak would be less severe than historical drawdowns of 70–80%, it could still signal the asset’s growing maturity. Consequently, the cryptocurrency market in January 2026 finds itself at a crossroads: recent price stability is juxtaposed against analytical predictions of potential downside continuation, leaving the core question of whether cyclical patterns or structural evolution will dictate the market’s path wide open.