Iranian Protests Escalate into Third Week Amid Threats of US Military Intervention

Anti-government demonstrations within the Islamic Republic of Iran have now stretched into their third week as of January 12, 2026. The unrest initially ignited in late December 2025, fueled primarily by a severe economic downturn. This crisis included the Iranian rial losing nearly half its value against the US dollar, coupled with annual inflation figures reportedly reaching between 42.2% and 42.5% by early January 2026. Observers have noted a rapid ideological shift in the protests, with slogans quickly evolving into direct demands for the overthrow of the theocratic establishment.

The response from Iranian authorities to this mounting public discontent has been notably severe. Surveillance capabilities utilizing unmanned aerial vehicles have been deployed extensively. Furthermore, starting January 8, 2026, the government imposed near-total restrictions on internet access. According to data from NetBlocks, this action throttled network connectivity to approximately just 1% of its normal capacity. Human rights organization HRANA confirmed by January 11 that the death toll had reached a minimum of 538 fatalities, comprising 490 demonstrators and 48 security personnel. The total number of individuals detained has surpassed 10,600. Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani reported significant material damage within the capital, citing the burning of 25 mosques and the disabling of 26 banks and 10 government facilities. In response to the security force casualties, Iranian authorities declared three days of official mourning.

This internal turmoil has coincided with an escalation in international rhetoric, particularly between Tehran and Washington. US President Donald Trump, who stated he receives reports "hourly," declared that Iran had crossed a "red line" due to the killing of protestors. He further indicated that US military departments are actively considering "very serious options," which do not rule out the use of force. Trump also floated the possibility of consulting with Elon Musk to potentially expand Starlink internet access as a countermeasure to the government’s digital blackout. In direct response to these threats, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a stern warning: should the US launch an attack, American military installations, along with Israeli assets in the region, would instantly become "legitimate targets."

Official narratives regarding the situation remain deeply polarized. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi maintains that the situation is "under complete control," placing blame on the United States and Israel for inciting violence and introducing armed elements among the crowds since January 8. Conversely, exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi is actively soliciting international backing, asserting that Iranians have a "real opportunity" to reclaim their nation. Meanwhile, Attorney General Mohammad Movahed-Azad has threatened that protestors could be classified as "enemies of God," a charge punishable by execution. In contrast, Tehran Governor Mohammad Sadegh Motamedian insists that the protests are "rapidly subsiding."

The international community’s reaction is similarly fractured. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, voiced strong opposition to any foreign interference in Iran’s domestic affairs. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held consultations regarding potential US actions, prompting Israel to place its forces on high alert. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for his part, accused the demonstrators of following a foreign agenda designed to appease President Trump. These compounding pressures, exacerbated by the lingering consequences of the June 2025 conflict involving Israel and the US, underscore the profound structural fragility of Iran’s economic model, where some estimates suggest up to 10% of the population faced the threat of starvation by the start of 2026.