Global Conflict Index Hits Record High in 2025 Amid Escalating Trade Wars, MBI Reports

Michael Bauer International (MBI) has released its annual security assessment, the “Balance of Security 2025” report, which paints a stark picture of escalating global tensions. The analysis documented an unprecedented surge in political friction across the world between January and September 2025. During this nine-month window, a staggering 1,450 ongoing political incidents were recorded globally. This quantitative surge was not solely driven by an increase in active warfare; it was equally fueled by a sharp intensification of non-military pressure tactics, particularly within the sphere of international commerce.

A key metric signaling this heightened friction is the rise in full-scale wars, which reached 89 conflicts spanning 31 nations. This figure represents an increase of 11 more incidents than were recorded throughout the entirety of the previous year. Furthermore, the dynamic of conflict initiation far outpaced resolution during the reporting period. Seventy new conflicts were initiated, whereas only 18 concluded, clearly indicating that the momentum is firmly on the side of escalation rather than de-escalation. Adding to this worrying trend, nine existing conflicts crossed the threshold into the official designation of ‘war’ for the first time in 2025, suggesting a deepening of entrenched, long-term international problems.

The report placed significant emphasis on the intensifying trade and economic confrontation between the United States and China. Tariff escalations reached a critical flashpoint. The administration of President Donald Trump imposed a substantial 145 percent duty on Chinese imports, prompting an immediate retaliatory measure from Beijing, which raised its tariffs on American goods to 125 percent. Although these punitive measures were temporarily paused by a truce agreed upon on May 12, MBI projections indicated that these trade actions were set to shave 0.2 percent off total global trade volume.

Several specific geographic hotspots saw severe deterioration. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the conflict involving M23 rebels, reportedly backed by Rwanda, culminated in the rebels seizing control of Goma in January 2025. Meanwhile, the civil war in Sudan, which initially erupted in April 2023, continued to worsen, exacerbating a humanitarian catastrophe. This ongoing conflict has resulted in over 12 million people being internally displaced, with an additional 3 million seeking refuge outside the country’s borders.

Dr. Nicholas Schwank, MBI’s Chief Political Risk Specialist and former head of the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research, cautions that outright wars represent just the visible tip of a much larger iceberg. MBI’s broader analysis identified 523 instances of violent crises that did not meet the formal threshold for war, including approximately 140 distinct protest-related conflicts. Data collected from July 2024 through June 2025 revealed a grim uptick in fatalities: nearly 240,000 deaths were linked to violent events, marking an approximate 23 percent increase compared to the preceding year.

The conflicts of 2025 are also marked by a distinct trend toward internationalization. A total of 78 nations found themselves involved in conflicts extending beyond their own sovereign territories. While the East Asia and Pacific regions maintained relatively lower rates of conflict activity, the regions encompassing Europe and Central Asia, alongside the Middle East and North Africa, experienced sharp spikes in overall tension levels. This complex, multi-layered instability is fundamentally reshaping the contours of the international security landscape into one that is significantly more turbulent.