Ukraine and Russia Agree to Temporary Winter Energy Truce Following US Mediation

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on Thursday, January 29, 2026, the establishment of a temporary "energy truce" agreement with the Russian Federation, intended to cover the duration of the severe winter cold period. This diplomatic development followed intensive discussions held in Abu Dhabi between negotiation teams representing both nations. President Zelensky publicly acknowledged the significant role played by United States President Donald Trump, whose mediation efforts were instrumental in securing the pause in hostilities targeting energy infrastructure.

The arrangement is designed to guarantee the safety of Kyiv and other major Ukrainian population centers from Russian strikes throughout the period of extreme frost, according to the Ukrainian leader. The trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates, which occurred on January 23-24, 2026, reportedly included a proposal from Washington that also suggested a cessation of Ukrainian actions against Russian Navy assets, specifically mentioning 'ten-day fleet' missile carriers. This development follows a period of heightened military activity, including the introduction of a martial law regime within Ukraine's energy sector in mid-January 2026 due to sustained Russian strikes.

The immediate context for the truce is the forecast of severe weather, with temperatures in Ukraine's south projected to plummet to -30°C during an impending wave of intense frosts, providing a humanitarian imperative for the temporary halt in attacks on civilian energy systems. Concurrently, Ukrainian assessments, including those from Victoria Strakhova, Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine, suggested a strategic element to the pause from the Russian side, noting that the observation of X-101 missiles after January 24 pointed toward a depletion of Russia's long-range missile stockpiles.

President Zelensky maintained a cautious stance regarding the agreement's longevity, stating that the "actual situation in the coming days will show whether the pause in strikes is being observed." This skepticism was underscored by the lack of official comment from the Kremlin, as Official Kremlin Press Secretary Dmytro Peskov declined to issue a statement. Prior to the confirmation, Ukrainian military sources, including Konstantin Nemichev, Commander of the 'Kraken' unit, had relayed reports alleging a ban by the Russian Armed Forces on strikes against targets in Kyiv, the Kyiv region, and all of Ukraine commencing at 7 AM on Thursday, January 29.

The alleged agreement, reportedly brokered in part by President Trump's direct appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin to refrain from strikes for a week due to the cold, represents a critical, albeit temporary, de-escalation. The diplomatic maneuvering in Abu Dhabi has temporarily shifted the focus from direct military confrontation to humanitarian considerations driven by extreme weather conditions, with international observers closely monitoring compliance with the terms related to energy infrastructure protection during peak winter demand.