Analysis Reveals Russian Deployment of 'Oreshnik' Hypersonic Missiles at Belarusian Airbase

New intelligence, derived from satellite imagery analysis conducted by American researchers, strongly suggests Russia has positioned its 'Oreshnik' hypersonic ballistic missiles within Belarus. Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, alongside Decker Eveleth from the CNA think tank, spearheaded this examination of Planet Labs data.

These experts have identified mobile launch vehicles at the former Krichev-6 airbase, situated in the Mogilev region, with a confidence level reaching 90 percent. Their assessment indicates that construction activity at the site commenced sometime between August 4 and August 12, 2025. Crucially, imagery captured on November 19 showed features consistent with Russian strategic missile bases, including a protected railway transfer point. This installation lies approximately 180 kilometers from the Ukrainian border and roughly 400 kilometers from the frontiers of Lithuania and Poland.

The deployment followed a public confirmation from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on December 22, 2025. He acknowledged receiving up to 10 'Oreshnik' systems, framing the move as a necessary countermeasure against what he termed the West's 'aggressive actions.' The 'Oreshnik' system, first unveiled by President Putin on November 21, 2024, boasts a claimed strike range extending up to 5,500 kilometers and speeds reaching Mach 10. Proponents assert this capability renders it impervious to existing missile defense shields.

While Minsk confirmed the delivery of up to 10 complexes with a range of 4,000 km, experts view this as a significant augmentation of Russia's offensive reach across the European theater. Furthermore, Belarus is not merely hosting the missiles; it is reportedly serving as a manufacturing hub for the mobile launchers associated with the 'Oreshnik' system, indicating a deeper integration into the production pipeline.

Simultaneously, on December 26, 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky leveled serious accusations against both Moscow and Minsk. According to Ukrainian intelligence reports, Russian forces are installing specialized equipment, including guidance antennas, atop five-story residential buildings in Belarusian border towns. The alleged purpose is to facilitate precision targeting by 'Shahed' attack drones aimed at objectives in Western Ukraine.

Zelensky characterized this tactic as an attempt to circumvent Ukrainian air defenses, warning that such maneuvers place Belarus's sovereignty in jeopardy. As of December 27, 2025, neither the Russian nor the Belarusian defense ministries had issued immediate statements regarding the allegations concerning the use of civilian infrastructure, highlighting the sensitivity of the unfolding situation.

This development echoes historical precedents, given that Belarus served as a staging ground for the February 2022 invasion, and Minsk remains a vital military partner. Discussions regarding the potential employment of this weaponry had previously surfaced during the joint Russian-Belarusian 'Zapad-2025' military exercises in mid-September 2025. Despite Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin previously stating that the 'Oreshnik' deployment would not upset the European balance of power, the proximity of the missiles to NATO borders—just 400 km from Poland and Lithuania—is causing palpable alarm within the Alliance.

President Zelensky’s recent pronouncements also touched upon diplomatic avenues. He mentioned Ukraine's readiness to discuss a 60-day truce preceding a referendum on his proposed '20-point' peace plan, alongside an anticipated meeting with Donald Trump later in 2025. The current geopolitical climate reflects a dual escalation: the physical placement of hypersonic weaponry and the alleged leveraging of an ally's civilian assets for tactical drone operations. In its nuclear configuration, the 'Oreshnik' is capable of delivering warheads totaling up to 900 kilotons, equivalent to approximately 45 Hiroshima-sized bombs. The ramifications of this strategic move will undoubtedly shape military and diplomatic maneuvering throughout the remainder of 2025.