A powerful solar emission, classified as an M7.1 class flare, erupted from the Sun on December 31, 2025, marking a significant space weather event late in Solar Cycle 25. This intense outburst was directly linked to an active coronal hole that subsequently ejected plasma toward Earth. Specialists at the Institute of Cosmic Research (IKI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences confirmed the flare reached its peak intensity at 16:51 Moscow time on New Year's Eve.
The event occurs as Solar Cycle 25, initially predicted to be weak, continues to exhibit stronger activity than forecast, with its peak having been officially announced by NASA and NOAA around October 15, 2024. The plasma ejections resulting from this flare are projected to interact with Earth's magnetosphere, potentially leading to a G1-class geomagnetic storm, a minor disturbance, commencing around January 1, 2026. This elevated solar activity is expected to influence the near-Earth environment until January 3, 2026.
In response to the heightened conditions, operators of power systems and essential energy infrastructure have been placed on heightened vigilance as a standard precaution. Even minor G1 storms can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in long transmission lines, which may cause voltage fluctuations or minor grid disturbances. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center also classified this specific M7.1 flare as an R2-Moderate radio blackout event.
While the overall solar activity throughout 2025 showed a measurable decrease compared to the heightened levels of 2024, this late-year flare represents a notable spike in particle emissions as the cycle moves past its maximum. Institutions like the IKI, building upon decades of Russian solar research, maintain continuous monitoring, which is crucial for refining models that predict the impact of such eruptions on satellite operations, navigation systems, and terrestrial power grids.
