Cuba's Energy Crisis Deepens Following Suspension of Venezuelan Oil Shipments

Cuba's ongoing energy crisis has escalated to a critical point following a significant geopolitical event. On January 3, 2026, United States forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This action triggered an immediate cessation of crucial oil supplies flowing from Venezuela to the island nation.

This sudden geopolitical shockwave has resulted in severe shortages across Cuba, impacting not only fuel but also essential medicines and foodstuffs. The immediate consequence has been the implementation of daily rolling blackouts across the country. As of the morning of January 12, 2026, the national power grid reported available generation capacity hovering around 1,550 MW. This figure fell far short of the projected demand of 2,180 MW, signaling a potential deficit of 1,730 MW during peak usage hours. The power generation losses directly attributable to the fuel shortfall reached 855 MW, starkly illustrating the depth of the energy shock now gripping the island.

Historically, Venezuela has been Havana's primary energy benefactor, supplying roughly half of Cuba's total oil requirements. Data from PDVSA indicated that the average daily export volume between January and November 2025 was approximately 27,000 barrels per day. However, recent statistics from Kpler for 2025 reveal a shift in primary suppliers. Mexico, under the leadership of President Claudia Sheinbaum, has overtaken Venezuela to become the island's leading source of crude.

Mexico's exports averaged 12,284 barrels daily throughout 2025, accounting for 44% of Cuba's total imports. This volume represented a substantial 56% increase compared to the figures recorded in 2024. Conversely, Venezuela's oil exports to Cuba diminished significantly in 2025, dropping to an average of 9,528 barrels per day, which constituted only 34% of the island's imports. This 2025 Venezuelan figure marks a steep 63% decline from the levels seen back in 2023.

President Sheinbaum has confirmed that Mexico will maintain its shipments, framing them strictly as humanitarian aid. Nevertheless, she was clear that significant increases beyond existing contractual obligations are not planned, citing concerns over potential repercussions from Washington. A tanker carrying a shipment of 85,000 to 90,000 barrels of oil arrived on January 9, 2026, offering only a temporary reprieve. This delivery does little to address the fundamental structural vulnerability of the island's reliance on external energy sources.

Meanwhile, in Venezuela, Interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumed control of the nation following President Maduro's detention. The United States is reportedly engaged in high-level discussions with Caracas regarding potential oil deliveries, possibly up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, contingent on access to funds currently held under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Treasury Department.

U.S. President Donald Trump issued a firm statement asserting that Cuba would receive no further oil or financial assistance from Venezuela unless Havana negotiates a direct agreement with Washington. Trump alleged that Cuba had been receiving these resources in exchange for providing security services to Venezuelan leadership figures. Economic analysts are sounding the alarm, warning of potentially catastrophic economic fallout for Cuba. They are drawing parallels between the current situation and the island's most severe economic crisis since the 1959 Revolution, noting that the existing, long-standing U.S. embargo only exacerbates the present hardship.