Three-Year Global Temperature Average Tops 1.5°C Limit Amid 2025 Extreme Weather

The global average temperature, calculated across the preceding three years, formally surpassed the 1.5°C warming threshold established by the Paris Agreement for the first time in 2025, according to findings released by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium in Europe. This development occurred despite 2025 featuring La Niña conditions, a natural climate pattern typically associated with a slight cooling effect, which underscores the dominant influence of sustained, human-driven fossil fuel emissions. The WWA analysis indicated that 2025 is virtually certain to be recorded as the second or third warmest year on record.

Throughout 2025, the planet experienced a marked increase in climatic volatility, with the WWA identifying 157 distinct extreme weather events that met established humanitarian impact criteria. Heatwaves and floods were the most frequent hazards, each accounting for 49 separate occurrences, followed by storms, which registered 38 events. Of the 22 events studied in detail by the consortium, 17 were found to have been made demonstrably more severe or more probable due to anthropogenic climate change, confirming that planet-heating emissions from fossil fuels intensified dangerous weather phenomena.

Extreme heat emerged as the deadliest hazard of the year, resulting in an estimated 24,400 fatalities across 854 European cities between June and August. Researchers from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine estimated that approximately 68 percent of these deaths were directly attributable to climate change, effectively tripling the expected toll in a non-warmed world. Italy recorded the highest number of these climate-attributed deaths at 4,597, followed by Spain with 2,841, Germany with 1,477, France with 1,444, and the UK with 1,147 fatalities. The analysis further noted that individuals aged 65 and older comprised 85 percent of the excess deaths, highlighting the heightened vulnerability of Europe's aging demographic.

Furthermore, the atmospheric conditions significantly amplified the risk of catastrophic fire events in the Iberian Peninsula. The weather conditions fueling the devastating wildfires in Portugal and Spain were calculated to be approximately 40 times more probable due to climate breakdown. The associated hot, dry, and windy conditions preceding the August blazes were also found to be 30 percent more intense than they would have been pre-industrially. Scientists noted that such extreme weather spells, historically occurring once every 5,000 years, are now projected to happen every 15 years in the current climate regime.

Lead WWA scientist Friederike Otto emphasized that adaptation measures alone are insufficient to manage these escalating risks. The UK's Met Office projects that temperatures for 2026 will likely remain oscillating between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above pre-industrial averages, reinforcing the critical necessity for a comprehensive replacement of fossil fuel energy systems. The WWA report warns that the world is approaching the 'limits of adaptation,' where preparedness can no longer fully mitigate the consequences of continued warming.