On November 18, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is set to present a plan aimed at freezing the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine at the current front lines during the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. According to Bloomberg, this proposal includes a significant concession from Ukraine, which would agree to postpone discussions regarding NATO membership for a minimum of ten years.
As part of the plan, Erdoğan has suggested providing military equipment to Ukraine and establishing a demilitarized zone in eastern Donbas, where international forces would be stationed as additional guarantees. Turkish officials expressed skepticism about Ukraine's acceptance of this proposal but noted it as the most realistic approach to achieving a stable ceasefire.
Erdoğan hopes to persuade Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to engage in negotiations in Istanbul, citing intelligence that Ukraine may lose more territory in the coming months if hostilities continue. Notably, Zelensky will not attend the G20 summit, as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has not responded to Ukraine's requests for an invitation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also announced he would not attend the summit due to an international arrest warrant against him. Both Brazil and Russia are members of BRICS.
Recently, Ukraine's allies have intensified efforts to encourage both parties to enter negotiations. On November 15, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held his first phone conversation with Putin in two years, while French President Emmanuel Macron indicated he might speak with Putin when conditions are more favorable, expressing doubts about Putin's willingness for peace talks.
In an interview with Suspilne on November 16, Zelensky stated that Ukrainian authorities must do everything possible to conclude the war through diplomatic means by 2025.