On September 29, approximately 6.3 million eligible voters in Austria will head to the polls for parliamentary elections. The primary question of this campaign is whether the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPA) will maintain its status as the country's strongest political party. In the European Parliament elections held in June, the FPA emerged victorious in the Alpine republic.
The right-wing populists have led in opinion polls for over a year, currently garnering just under 28%, followed closely by the conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) at nearly 25%, and the Social Democrats at 20%. The Greens, part of the current government, and the New Austria and Liberal Forum are competing for fourth place, each at around 10%.
Both the Communist Party of Austria and the Beer Party, led by cabaret artist Dominik Wlazny, are hovering near the crucial four percent barrier necessary for representation in the National Council, the lower house of parliament.
Typically, election campaigns focus on a variety of pressing issues, but according to Sylvia Kritzinger, a political science professor at the University of Vienna, migration and security are particularly significant for many Austrian voters this time.
Herbert Kickl, the FPA leader, promises to become a 'people's chancellor', a term historically associated with Adolf Hitler, although Kickl denies any intentional allusion. However, even if the right-wing populists receive the most votes, at least two other candidates stand in the way of his chancellorship. Current Chancellor Karl Nehammer of the ÖVP and President Alexander Van der Bellen of the Greens will play pivotal roles.
According to the Austrian Constitution, the chancellor is not elected by parliament but appointed by the president, who considers the majority opinion of the National Council. However, as Peter Filzmaier, a political science professor at Danube University Krems, notes, the head of state is free and independent in this decision. Van der Bellen has already indicated he will not appoint Kickl as head of government, meaning the chancellorship may not necessarily go to the leader of the party winning the parliamentary elections.
On the other hand, Nehammer has repeatedly ruled out forming a coalition with Kickl and even engaging in government formation talks. In a debate preceding the elections, Nehammer labeled his opponent as 'radically inclined' and accused him of spreading conspiracy theories. However, Nehammer has not completely dismissed the possibility of cooperation with the FPA.
Observers point to overlaps in the positions of the right-wing populists and conservatives, particularly regarding economic and migration policies. Both the FPA and the ÖVP advocate for limiting migration. The ÖVP's election program calls for a 'strict asylum system', ending illegal migration, and relocating refugee status procedures outside the country.
Meanwhile, the FPA continues its 'Fortress Austria' campaign, seeking to turn back refugees at the state border, establish border barriers in popular migrant routes, and suspend asylum rights in certain cases. Additionally, the right-wing populists support 're-immigration', referring to the repatriation of all illegal immigrants based on existing legal norms.
The last ruling coalition involving the ÖVP and FPA was formed under then-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz in December 2017 but collapsed following the 'Ibiza scandal' in May 2019, which involved a secret video recording of a meeting on the Spanish island.
Right-wing populists believe that if their party succeeds in the elections, they will not sacrifice their chancellor candidate Kickl for a chance to enter government. Analysts suggest that the conservatives from the ÖVP will seek to attract the Social Democrats and a third partner, such as the New Austria and Liberal Forum, to form a ruling coalition.
The ÖVP has fallen out with the Greens, currently in government, over issues including an ecosystem restoration law. Historically, Austria has never had a three-party ruling coalition.
Many Austrians remain undecided, and the outcome of the vote is far from certain. Recent polls indicate that the lead of the right-wing populists over the conservatives has narrowed to just one or two percent. This may be linked to devastating floods that inundated much of the country nearly two weeks ago, inadvertently allowing Chancellor Nehammer to present himself as an active crisis manager.
This development has surprised the FPA, as the flood issue has temporarily overshadowed migration topics, which are central to the right-wing populists and dominated the current election campaign.
Alexander Pröll, a candidate from the conservative ÖVP, concluded his campaign in Vienna by distributing gift bags that included tissues, suggesting they may be needed if Kickl becomes chancellor. However, Pröll confidently asserts, 'I firmly believe that our government leader will still be Karl Nehammer.'