As Florida grapples with its second major hurricane in two weeks, the question arises: could such phenomena occur in France? Hurricanes Helene and Milton have wreaked havoc in the U.S., leaving dozens dead and causing significant damage.
Recently, France experienced the remnants of Hurricane Kirk, which led to severe flooding and prompted Météo France to issue red alerts in two departments. This raises concerns about the potential for similar storms to impact Europe.
While hurricanes like Milton may not directly strike France, meteorologists warn that intense storms could still affect the region. The Mediterranean Sea has seen rising temperatures, creating conditions that could foster such weather events.
Yann Amice, a meteorologist and oceanographer, notes that recent years have seen tropical storms reaching Europe, a trend that was once considered marginal. The shift suggests that Europe may no longer be insulated from these powerful systems.
Although Kirk had weakened into a depression by the time it hit France, it still carried moisture-laden air, resulting in heavy rainfall. This scenario, while less severe than that of Milton or Helene, is concerning for future weather patterns.
Other former hurricanes, such as Ophelia in October 2017, have also transitioned into depressions over Europe, causing significant damage and fatalities. The remnants of Hurricane Milton may soon head towards the Azores, potentially impacting Europe.
One key factor in the development of these storms is sea surface temperature. When ocean temperatures exceed 26.5°C, tropical storms can intensify. Climate change is causing these temperatures to rise, increasing the likelihood of powerful storms reaching European shores.
While hurricanes like Milton may not form over France due to insufficient warm water, the Mediterranean can reach temperatures conducive to the development of 'medicanes'—subtropical Mediterranean cyclones that share characteristics with hurricanes.
In conclusion, although the frequency of hurricanes may not increase, their intensity is likely to rise due to climate change. Europe must prepare for the impacts of these powerful storms, which are becoming more common in weather forecasts.