Massive Bet Sparks Surge in Probability of UFO File Declassification on Polymarket

The Polymarket prediction exchange has recently become the epicenter of intense speculation regarding the potential declassification of classified Unidentified Flying Object (UFO) materials by the Trump administration before the close of 2025. A pivotal moment occurred on Sunday, December 7, 2025, when the actions of a single trader dramatically shifted market expectations surrounding this highly sensitive topic. This incident clearly illustrates how financial instruments can serve as a barometer for public sentiment on critical government matters, even absent any official pronouncements.

The specific contract tied to this forecast is slated for settlement on December 31, 2025. The aggressive maneuvering involved a trader identified by the handle @ster, who executed a massive purchase of 'Yes' shares on the relevant contract. This significant capital injection propelled the implied probability of the event occurring from a near-zero level up to an astonishing 87% within just one day. Such a swift movement immediately raised eyebrows concerning the possibility that the buyer possessed privileged, non-public information.

Prior to this event, a contract focused on whether Trump would declassify UFO files within his first 100 days—a contract that settled earlier—had seen trading volume surpass $263,000 back in April 2025. However, the recent spike in activity dwarfs all preceding metrics related to UFO disclosure speculation on the platform.

The push for transparency concerning Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP/UFOs) carries a long-standing political undertone, particularly concerning the Trump administration. As far back as September 2023, Trump publicly stated that he had been privately briefed by US military officials confirming UFO sightings, and he pledged to release more documentation should he return to office. Further fueling this narrative, the National Archives released the 'UFO/UAP Related Records Collection' in April 2025, fulfilling mandates set forth by the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act.

Moreover, early in 2025, President Trump initiated the declassification of documents pertaining to the assassinations of both John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. These actions established a precedent, thereby heightening public anticipation for similar transparency measures regarding UFO files.

These developments on Polymarket are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened political attention to the subject. For instance, in October 2025, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly expressed that UFO sightings near nuclear installations were keeping him awake at night. These comments were featured in the trailer for the documentary 'The Disclosure Age,' underscoring that concern over unexplained phenomena remains very real and likely contributes to the current market sentiment.

It is crucial to remember that while Polymarket has seen growth, the platform has previously faced scrutiny regarding the integrity of its trading volume. A study conducted by Columbia University suggested that as much as 25% of the total trading volume might have been fabricated. Nevertheless, the platform appears to be stabilizing its position; the Department of Justice concluded its investigation into Polymarket in July 2025, paving the way for the platform to re-enter the US market after acquiring the licensed derivatives exchange QCEX for $112 million.

By November 2025, the platform's overall trading volume reached approximately $400 million, doubling the figures recorded just four months prior in July. Consequently, the dramatic leap in probability to 87% on Polymarket is a direct consequence of one trader’s concentrated action, not an official confirmation from the Trump administration regarding its intention to declassify files by the December 31, 2025 deadline. While market participants are pricing in a high likelihood based on their bets, this primarily reflects current sentiment and potential informational advantages rather than established fact.