On January 3, 2025, Polymarket bettors indicated an 85% likelihood that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the end of 2025. This marks a significant 35% increase in confidence over just a few days.
The rising optimism suggests that Solana ETFs could follow the trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum, further integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance. Initially, the odds for Solana ETF approval were at 45%, but they have climbed steadily to 85% as of January 2.
Despite this optimism, the SEC's classification of SOL as a security complicates the approval process due to ongoing lawsuits. A separate survey estimates a 57% chance of approval by July 2025. Five major asset managers, including Grayscale and VanEck, have filed applications for Solana ETFs, highlighting market demand.
Industry analysts view the recent filing for Solana futures ETFs as a positive sign, although these futures are not yet available on regulated exchanges. The anticipated leadership change at the SEC in 2025 could also influence the approval landscape, especially if a more crypto-friendly chair is appointed.
The potential approval of Solana ETFs could be a significant milestone for the crypto sector, enhancing Solana's position in the digital asset market. However, the final outcome will hinge on the evolving regulatory environment and new SEC leadership's approach to crypto policy.