US Pledges Air and Intelligence Support for European-Led Post-War Security Force in Ukraine

The United States is evolving its policy by pledging air and intelligence support for a European-led security force intended to operate in Ukraine following a potential post-war settlement. This commitment marks a shift from previous stances that excluded involvement in post-war security guarantees.

Under the proposed framework, a demilitarized zone could be established and potentially patrolled by neutral peacekeepers, subject to agreement between Kyiv and Moscow. A more robust border is envisioned, to be manned by NATO-trained Ukrainian troops. A third line of defense would be a European-led deterrence force. U.S. Vice President JD Vance has emphasized that European nations should bear the primary responsibility and financial commitment for Ukraine's security, aligning with President Trump's objective to broker a peace deal and conclude the conflict. While the U.S. does not plan to deploy ground troops, it is open to providing crucial air support.

Discussions among U.S. and European military leaders have led to the development of various military options for Ukraine, which are to be presented to their national security advisors. These deliberations are crucial for shaping future security assurances for Ukraine, in line with President Trump's commitment to support the nation's defense within the context of a peace agreement with Russia. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has strongly opposed Russia's insistence on participating in discussions regarding post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, stating that Russia, as the aggressor, is not entitled to such guarantees.

European nations, led by France and the United Kingdom within a 'coalition of the willing,' are preparing to contribute troops, equipment, and logistical support, emphasizing that U.S. backing is essential for any security guarantee to be effective. The U.S. commitment, as reported by the Financial Times, includes providing intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), command and control systems, and air defense assets. This support could involve U.S. aircraft, logistics, and ground-based radar to facilitate a European-enforced no-fly zone and air shield for Ukraine.

The U.S. offer is contingent upon European countries committing tens of thousands of troops, and officials have noted that this offer could be rescinded if European commitments are not met. The Pentagon has stated that these security commitments are pre-decisional and declined to comment further. The strategic importance of U.S. intelligence has been vital to Ukraine's war efforts, with data on Russian troop movements and intended attacks aiding in planning offensive operations. The U.S. has also provided intelligence that was instrumental in Ukraine's successful targeting of the Russian Black Sea flagship, the Moskva.