The Gulf states have become central players in the United States' efforts to secure a new nuclear deal with Iran, shifting roles from a decade ago when they were sidelined and frustrated by the previous agreement.
This shift underscores how the "America First" policy of U.S. President Donald Trump, and the marginalization of traditional European allies, have created space for Gulf and other regional powers to influence U.S. foreign policy. While the Obama administration engaged in a multilateral process involving the UK, Germany, France, Russia, and China for the 2015 agreement, Trump is pushing for a bilateral deal with Iran, threatening military action if diplomacy fails.
The change also reflects a detente between Gulf powers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and Iran. These Sunni states, which viewed Iran as a hostile rival, have sought to reduce tensions and prevent further conflict in the Middle East. Consequently, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have shifted from supporting Trump's decision to abandon the JCPOA to publicly backing diplomatic efforts to resolve the nuclear standoff.
This means the Gulf states are leveraging their ties with Trump to act as important counterweights to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is pushing for military action. Indirect talks between the Trump administration and Iran have been facilitated by Oman and Qatar.
A Saudi official stated that the message to Iranian leaders was that the kingdom wanted to maintain dialogue and not be part of any hostile action, urging Tehran to reach a deal with Trump. The fear in the Gulf is that if diplomacy fails and the U.S. and Israel launch attacks against Iran, it could trigger a war.
The UAE, which Trump chose as a messenger to send a letter to Khamenei this year, made similar comments. In contrast to the Gulf states, European governments involved in the JCPOA negotiations appear marginalized. European officials have held several rounds of lower-level talks with their Iranian counterparts since September, but EU diplomats acknowledge their limited role in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Tensions have also risen between European states and Iran. Tehran blames the Europeans for not doing enough to ensure Iran received economic benefits from the JCPOA after the U.S. withdrawal. Europeans are increasingly concerned about Iran's nuclear advancements and have threatened to trigger a "snapback" process, reimposing UN sanctions if Iranian activities are not controlled.
Gulf states could also play a role if negotiations succeed, with the possibility of establishing a consortium involving the U.S. and regional states to develop low-level uranium enrichment facilities. This idea is seen as a potential compromise to bridge the gap between Iran's insistence on its right to enrich uranium and Trump's demand that Tehran dismantle its program.