Guinea is set to hold a constitutional referendum on September 21, 2025, marking a critical juncture in its transition back to constitutional rule after the September 2021 coup that ousted President Alpha Condé. General Mamady Doumbouya, the head of the ruling military junta, announced the referendum on April 1, 2025. The proposed new constitution is intended to supersede the 2020 charter and serve as a foundation for democratic elections.
However, the transition process is accompanied by significant concerns. Several political figures and civil society organizations have expressed apprehension that the proposed constitutional amendments could prolong military rule. Key elements of the draft constitution include an extension of the presidential term from five to seven years, with a possibility for renewal, and the establishment of a Senate, a portion of whose members would be directly appointed by the President. Critics argue that these changes, particularly the extended presidential term, could be a mechanism for consolidating power.
Adding to the political climate, Guinea's military authorities recently suspended three major opposition parties—the Rally of the Guinean People (RPG), the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), and the Party of Renewal and Progress—for 90 days. This suspension, occurring shortly before the referendum, has been criticized by opponents as a deliberate suppression of dissent, despite the junta citing administrative reasons. These parties are among those planning demonstrations against what they view as a power grab by the junta.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has consistently urged for a transparent and inclusive democratic transition. ECOWAS has deployed technical missions to Guinea to observe and support the implementation of a 10-point transition agreement, underscoring the regional significance of Guinea's political path for stability in West Africa.
The draft constitution also outlines societal advancements such as free and compulsory schooling and universal health coverage. Guinea's political history is marked by instability, including previous coups and contested elections. The 2021 coup, led by Doumbouya, followed widespread protests against then-President Alpha Condé's attempt to secure a third term, which was facilitated by a constitutional change in 2020. The current transition aims to establish a new course, but ensuring genuine democratic progress and public trust will require careful navigation.