Bitcoin Plummets 30% from Peak: Analysts Identify Key Indicators Suggesting Market Bottom Formation

The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a period of intense volatility, evidenced by Bitcoin's (BTC) substantial correction, which has seen its value plummet nearly 30% from the peak recorded in early October 2025. As of November 18, 2025, BTC was trading at $93,525 USD, marking a significant retraction from the historic high exceeding $126,000 USD just last month. This sharp decline represents the most severe pullback since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States last year, underscoring the asset's heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and fund outflows. For instance, the price stood at $110,047.20 on November 1, 2025, before sliding to $95,940.90 by November 16, reflecting a monthly decrease of 12.43% across that specific timeframe.

Despite the persistent downward price pressure, several prominent market participants and analytical groups are identifying indicators suggesting that seller exhaustion is setting in, potentially signaling the formation of a local market floor. Jeffrey Kendrick, who serves as the Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, points out that the current correction closely mirrors patterns observed during previous market downturns—periods that have historically paved the way for subsequent recoveries. A crucial metric drawing attention is the modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) of MicroStrategy (MSTR). Kendrick highlights that this metric has fallen to parity at 1.0, which is widely interpreted as a robust sign that selling pressure is nearing its limit. Standard Chartered maintains its long-term optimism, upholding its projection for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 USD by the close of 2025, despite the near-term turbulence.

Further confirmation of a potential market foundation comes from analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, who cite compelling on-chain data indicative of investor capitulation. They have observed a noticeable deceleration in the realized losses among Short-Term Holders (STH). This phenomenon typically occurs when investors who purchased assets near recent peaks finally liquidate their positions at a loss. The Bitfinex Alpha report, released on November 17, revealed that the STH realized Profit/Loss ratio has dipped below 0.20. This critical level implies that over 80 percent of the coins transacted across the network are being sold at a loss—a zone historically consistent with the establishment of local market bottoms. Moreover, the percentage of STH currently holding assets in profit has decreased significantly to 7.6 percent, mirroring levels last witnessed near previous cyclical troughs.

The recent price correction has inevitably impacted corporate entities deeply intertwined with Bitcoin's performance. The Modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) for MicroStrategy, one of the largest corporate BTC holders globally, has now reached parity. This means the company’s market capitalization is roughly equivalent to the market value of its underlying Bitcoin reserves. The approach of mNAV to the 1.0 threshold is considered a pivotal moment for the company's BTC accumulation strategy. In contrast, during the early October BTC peak, this metric soared above 2.0, demonstrating the substantial premium investors were willing to pay for leveraged exposure to Bitcoin through MSTR stock. Despite the current valuation pressures, MicroStrategy remains committed to its long-term view of BTC as a strategic asset, evidenced by its continued purchasing activity.

The broader macroeconomic environment has undoubtedly contributed to the selling pressure. Expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve have diminished following the release of robust economic indicators, such as the Empire State Manufacturing Index climbing to 18.7. This shift has increased the likelihood of rates remaining steady during the December meeting, consequently dampening appetite for risk assets across the board. Nevertheless, analysts like Vikram Subburaj of Giottus.com emphasize that the fundamental underpinnings of the cryptocurrency have not deteriorated. He argues that the current price action merely reflects short-term volatility driven by the market's reassessment of risk. Given the confluence of signals pointing toward seller exhaustion and historical parallels with previous cycles, experts maintain the forecast for a potential rally before the end of the year, even as technical indicators, such as a “Sell” signal from the SuperTrend indicator on the weekly chart, caution against persistent near-term risks.