Avalanche (AVAX) Consolidates in the $9–$11 Range Amid Institutional Growth in RWA

As of February 15, 2026, the Avalanche (AVAX) digital asset remains in a phase of price consolidation, with its market value fluctuating within a defined corridor between $9 and $11. Despite the current lack of upward momentum, market analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the medium term, forecasting a potential climb toward the $15.50 to $16.50 price range. Technical indicators, most notably the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which currently sits at 43.07, suggest a neutral momentum. This leaves ample room for an upward trajectory, provided the asset can overcome significant overhead resistance. At present, AVAX is trading below its long-term moving averages, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) positioned at $11.87 and the 200-day SMA at $18.78.

On February 15, 2026, AVAX displayed signs of recent volatility, closing at $9.68, which represented a daily gain of 5.22% following an intraday low of $9.19. This price action follows analytical forecasts released by Timothy Morano on January 26, 2026, and Rongchai Vang on January 29, 2026, both of whom suggested a potential 12% to 19% rally toward the $15.50–$16.50 target within a two-to-three-week window. Additionally, Alvin Lang’s analysis from February 2, 2026, identified a short-term target of $11.20 to $12.00, while establishing a critical breakout point at $10.52 and a primary support level at $9.30. The realization of a bullish scenario depends on the asset's ability to breach immediate resistance at $9.89 and $10.10; experts believe that stabilizing above $10.10 will trigger the move toward short-term targets.

Successfully holding a position above the 20-day SMA, which was recorded at $9.78 at the time of the analysis, would significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the medium-term goal of $15.50–$16.50, representing a potential gain of 60% to 70% from current levels. The MACD indicator, with its histogram currently at 0.0000, signals a weakening of bearish momentum, which often precedes a bullish crossover. A more aggressive long-term projection provided by Viktoras Karapetjanc on February 6, 2026, suggested that AVAX could reach $55 by the end of 2026, assuming continued momentum from spot ETFs. This highlights a significant fundamental divergence between the current market price and the increasing utility of the network.

The fundamental pillars for this optimism are rooted in the growing institutional adoption of the Avalanche network, particularly within the sector of Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Total Value Locked (TVL) in RWA on Avalanche exceeded $1.3 billion, the result of a 68.6% quarterly surge and a year-over-year increase of nearly 950%. A primary catalyst for this growth was BlackRock’s expansion of its USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) by $500 million. This institutional validation, combined with strategic partnerships such as the collaboration between FIS and Intain to tokenize credit markets, provides a sturdy foundation for the current medium-term price projections.

Nevertheless, a downside risk remains, as a drop below the critical support level of $8.98 would invalidate the existing bullish projections. Analysis from February 10, 2026, when AVAX was trading at $8.90, noted a state of "Extreme Fear" on the Fear and Greed Index, even as 24-hour trading volume climbed 5.94% to $239.44 million, suggesting that buyers were actively absorbing the selling pressure. Crucially, Avalanche led all blockchain networks in net capital inflows, recording $135 million as of February 2026. Furthermore, a 242% increase in active addresses since January 2026, reaching approximately 1.6 to 1.7 million by February 10, demonstrates accelerating network usage. Observers believe this growth in engagement could catalyze a price recovery for AVAX as soon as the broader market sentiment improves.