Arbitrum (ARB) Stabilizes Near $0.12 Threshold Ahead of Major February 16 Token Unlock

As of February 15, 2026, the Arbitrum (ARB) cryptocurrency is demonstrating signs of persistent market pressure, with its price trading at approximately $0.12. This current valuation represents a significant departure from previous optimistic forecasts, despite the fact that the network's underlying fundamental indicators remain exceptionally strong.

The current market environment is defined by neutral technical signals, yet it is overshadowed by the immediate threat of a supply increase due to a large-scale token unlock scheduled for the following day. On the fundamental side, the network continues to perform well, with the Total Value Locked (TVL) holding steady above the $20 billion mark, and the ecosystem is actively pushing forward with new initiatives, particularly in the realm of Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization.

Technical analysis of ARB as of February 15 indicates that the price is currently consolidating below several major moving averages. Most notably, it sits well under the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is pegged at $0.31. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 34.38, placing the asset in a neutral zone that is nearing oversold conditions, which could potentially set the stage for a price bounce in the near future.

Further inspection of the charts shows the MACD histogram has flattened at a value of 0.0000, suggesting a loss of downward momentum, even though a definitive bullish reversal has not yet occurred. The price is currently testing a short-term support level at the 7-day SMA of $0.11, while the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands offers a secondary support buffer at $0.09.

The most significant event impacting short-term price movement is the planned release of approximately 92 million ARB tokens on February 16, 2026. These tokens are slated for distribution to the DAO Treasury and represent about 0.93% of the total circulating supply. Arbitrum's tokenomic model designates the DAO Treasury as the largest stakeholder, holding 42.78% of the total 10 billion token supply. These unlock events utilize a cliff-vesting mechanism, meaning the tokens are released in a single lump sum after a specific waiting period, leaving the market to determine if current demand is sufficient to absorb the new supply.

Earlier, in late January 2026, several market analysts, including James Ding, had projected that ARB would rise into a price range between $0.25 and $0.28. In light of the current $0.12 price point, those earlier predictions now seem overly ambitious. This discrepancy between the network's high TVL of over $20 billion and its actual market price highlights how much short-term supply factors can weigh on investor sentiment.

Nevertheless, the strategic development of the Arbitrum ecosystem remains a priority for its stakeholders. This is evidenced by the Arbitrum DAO's approval of a $14 million ARB-denominated subsidy program for security audits, as well as the ongoing expansion of the RWA sector. These efforts suggest a strong long-term commitment to the platform's growth and security infrastructure.

Currently, the average daily trading volume for ARB stands at $5.6 million, which is considered relatively low for an asset facing a major unlock event. Historically, Arbitrum has experienced low levels of volatility in the seven days following such releases, though the ultimate impact is always contingent upon the actions of the token recipients and broader market trends. For investors eyeing the $0.12 level, technical data suggests that the risk-to-reward ratio may be attractive for dollar-cost averaging between $0.11 and $0.12, provided the RSI does not drop significantly deeper into oversold territory.