The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, increasing it while lowering estimates for the end of this year. The agency, based in Paris, announced on Thursday that it anticipates global oil demand will grow by 840,000 barrels per day in 2024, accelerating to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025.
This contrasts with previous forecasts from November, which predicted growth of 920,000 barrels per day for this year and 990,000 barrels per day for next year.
The IEA attributed this adjustment to the OPEC+ alliance's decision to extend its voluntary production cuts for an additional three months until April and to gradually increase production over the next nine months until September 2024. This has reduced the likelihood of a supply surplus expected for next year.
However, the IEA noted that excess production from some OPEC+ countries, coupled with the growth of non-member supply, alongside modest global demand growth, is likely to lead to a supply surplus in 2025.