Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Shifts Impact Indian Rupee and Global Markets on October 22, 2024

MUMBAI, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open nearly unchanged on Tuesday, trading within a narrow range as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes to stabilize the currency amid rising U.S. Treasury yields. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated an opening at 84.07-84.08 to the dollar, slightly down from 84.0725 on Monday, following a record low of 84.0775 last week.

Despite the rupee's recent decline past the key level of 84, volatility remains low compared to other Asian currencies. The RBI's regular dollar sales through public sector banks have mitigated fluctuations, with the currency experiencing minimal intraday swings of just 3 paisa over the last two sessions.

In related economic news, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a 12-week high on Monday, contributing to a stronger dollar and pushing the dollar index to its highest level in over two months. This increase is fueled by robust U.S. economic data and expectations surrounding the upcoming presidential election.

Barclays Plc. has indicated that ongoing geopolitical risks are likely to further pressure the rupee, predicting a gradual decline towards 84.40 per dollar. Other analysts foresee potential dips to 84.25 or 84.50 as foreign investment continues to shift towards China, coupled with rising gold prices and increased risk aversion.

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