Recent severe weather events, particularly the isolated depression that struck the Valencia region of Spain, have resulted in over 200 fatalities and unprecedented destruction. This disaster has been labeled the worst natural calamity in Spain's history. Experts warn that such adverse meteorological phenomena are likely to become more frequent.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long cautioned about the impact of rising global temperatures. Their latest report, released in 2023, indicates that a global warming increase of 1.5 ºC above pre-industrial levels — a threshold surpassed multiple times this year — will exacerbate the intensity and frequency of floods, particularly in regions already experiencing droughts, such as the Mediterranean basin.
According to a comprehensive analysis by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the majority of climate-related disasters over the past 50 years, measured by both human lives and material damage, are linked to water-related weather phenomena, including droughts, floods, and storms.
A recent article in National Geographic España referenced a study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group from the University of London, which highlighted the extent to which human activity has intensified the severity of the ten deadliest natural disasters in the last two decades. The alarming statistic indicates that these events have claimed a total of 570,000 lives in just twenty years.
The study underscores the modern scientific ability to establish a direct and irrefutable connection between global warming and extreme weather events, a link recognized for at least two decades since the deadly heatwave that swept Europe was attributed to human-induced climate change.
Current data suggest that isolated depressions at high levels (DANA) will become increasingly common. A report by World Weather Attribution concludes that such episodes are now up to 12% more intense and approximately twice as likely to occur compared to pre-industrial times.
This trend poses significant concerns for the Iberian Peninsula, which is particularly susceptible to such storms due to various factors that amplify the destructive potential of these adverse phenomena.
Warm winds from the east transport heated air from an increasingly warm sea, with humidity and heat rising to higher atmospheric layers due to convection, creating ideal conditions for storm formation. The elevated sea temperatures allow winds to continuously recharge the storm with warm air, increasing its duration and intensity.
Additionally, mountainous regions function as accelerators, further enhancing the ascension of moisture-laden air. This combination creates the perfect conditions for severe storms. The scientific community has consistently warned about these impending changes.