This fall season in the United States is projected to be among the warmest on record, with average temperatures exceeding 7 degrees Fahrenheit above normal as of November 15, 2024. This trend is part of a broader pattern of warming attributed to climate change.
The previous record for warmth in fall was set in 2016, which was 4.04 degrees above average. While this fall may cool slightly due to incoming storms, it has already marked the warmest start to the season.
Data indicates that numerous cities across the continental U.S. are experiencing unusually warm conditions, with many locales reporting one of their warmest falls to date. Meteorologist Shel Winkley from Climate Central noted that this year's fall weather is notably different from past generations, reflecting a trend of shrinking seasons.
Since 1970, fall temperatures have risen by an average of 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit across the Lower 48 states. The Southwest and Rockies are warming faster, but all regions are affected by climate change.
The prolonged heat and dry conditions have led to severe droughts and destructive wildfires, impacting all Lower 48 states. Some areas have experienced rapid onset of drought conditions, as seen in New Jersey, which transitioned from no drought to moderate drought within weeks.
Looking ahead, a series of storms is expected to bring rainfall to various regions, potentially alleviating some of the dry conditions. However, forecasts suggest that above-average warmth will persist for many in the U.S. through the end of November.