On August 4, 2025, Russia formally announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a landmark arms control agreement originally signed in 1987. This move effectively dissolves the treaty that had been instrumental in eliminating ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, thereby reducing nuclear arsenals and the risk of rapid escalation.
The decision follows years of accusations from the United States, which cited Russia's development and deployment of the 9M729 missile as a violation of the treaty. In response to Russia's actions, U.S. President Trump had previously condemned Russia's conduct and threatened economic sanctions if a diplomatic resolution was not reached by August 8, 2025. The Kremlin has indicated that the U.S. missile defense plan, known as 'Golden Dome,' could potentially influence future arms control discussions. Russia's departure from the INF Treaty signifies a growing instability in nuclear arms control, with significant implications for global security. The treaty's collapse, following the U.S. withdrawal in 2019, has rekindled fears of a Cold War-style arms race. The absence of such a framework raises the risk of miscalculation and conflict, as intermediate-range missiles can reach targets much faster than intercontinental ballistic missiles, leaving little time for decision-makers.
Historically, the INF Treaty was a cornerstone of Cold War arms control, leading to the destruction of nearly 2,700 missiles by 1991. The U.S. withdrawal in 2019 was based on allegations of Russian non-compliance, specifically concerning the 9M729 missile, which NATO designated as SSC-8. Russia, in turn, had pledged to maintain a moratorium on deploying such weapons as long as the U.S. did not. However, citing Western missile deployments and perceived threats to its security, Russia has now ended this moratorium. The implications of this development are far-reaching. The removal of constraints on missile development in Europe and Asia could lead to an intensified arms race. Furthermore, the erosion of trust between nuclear powers hinders ongoing arms control dialogues. With the New START Treaty set to expire in 2026, the future of remaining arms control agreements appears increasingly uncertain. The situation is further complicated by the U.S. missile defense plan, 'Golden Dome,' which Russia views as a destabilizing factor. The world now faces a landscape where the architecture for managing military escalation is weakened, increasing the potential for global instability.