Scientists have significantly revised the estimated probability of a collision between the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies. A new study indicates only a 2% chance of a direct collision within the next five billion years. This challenges previous assumptions that a collision was almost certain.
The research, published in Nature Astronomy on June 2, 2025, analyzed data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia space telescope. Researchers conducted over 100,000 simulations, incorporating variables such as the Large Magellanic Cloud's gravitational effects, which were not previously fully considered.
The simulations mapped the future trajectory of the Milky Way and Andromeda over the next 10 billion years. The Large Magellanic Cloud's influence on the Milky Way's movement reduces the likelihood of a merger. The team's findings underscore the importance of considering multiple factors and using advanced computational methods in predicting galactic interactions.