Ethiopian Volcano Erupts After Ten Millennia, Affecting Middle Eastern Airspace

The Hayli Gubbi volcano, located in Ethiopia's remote Afar region, initiated a significant explosive eruption on Sunday, November 23, 2025. This event marks the first confirmed volcanic activity from the stratovolcano in an estimated 10,000 years. The Afar region is geologically active, situated near the triple junction of the African, Somali, and Arabian tectonic plates, a setting conducive to frequent seismic and volcanic occurrences.

The initial phase of the eruption immediately began to influence regional atmospheric conditions, prompting swift advisories from international monitoring bodies. The Toulouse Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) provided the initial critical assessment, determining that the resulting ash plume ascended to an altitude between 10 and 15 kilometers above sea level. Material injected to this height is capable of disrupting aviation routes far beyond the volcano's immediate vicinity, necessitating immediate international coordination for air traffic management.

High-altitude prevailing winds quickly transported the ash cloud and a substantial accompanying sulfur dioxide (SO2) plume eastward across the Arabian Peninsula. The airspace over Yemen and Oman experienced a direct impact from the volcanic cloud. Sulfur dioxide is a significant atmospheric concern due to its potential to react in the stratosphere, forming sulfate aerosols that may have long-term climate implications. The eastward progression of the cloud continued over the Arabian Sea, with residual traces tracked toward the airspace boundaries of Pakistan and India.

The involvement of the Toulouse VAAC underscores the international framework in place for monitoring and disseminating warnings regarding trans-border volcanic hazards. The 10-to-15-kilometer plume height placed the material within the cruising altitude range for commercial jetliners, making the initial warning period vital for preventing engine damage and visibility issues. The event highlights the dynamic nature of the Earth's crust in the Horn of Africa and prompts geological investigation into the subsurface system that fed this significant release of energy and material.