The Atlantic hurricane season is intensifying, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) actively tracking several weather disturbances. Current projections from NOAA indicate a heightened likelihood of an above-normal season, with forecasts suggesting between 13 to 19 named storms. Of these, six to 10 are expected to develop into hurricanes, and three to five could reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). This outlook is influenced by continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, and forecasts for weak wind shear.
One system of interest is located near the northeastern coast of Florida, exhibiting a 30% probability of developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days. This disturbance is anticipated to track northward, remaining offshore the United States. Further east, a tropical wave originating from Africa is showing increased potential for development, moving into an environment more conducive to storm formation, with a 60% chance of organizing into a tropical depression over the weekend. Tropical Storm Dexter is currently navigating cooler waters and is expected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone soon. As of early August, Dexter was situated northeast of Bermuda with sustained winds around 50 mph, and is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low. Dexter poses no direct threat to the U.S. coast, but its progression highlights the dynamic nature of the current season.
The intensification of the Atlantic hurricane season is largely attributed to persistently warm sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic basin and the Caribbean Sea. Research indicates that human-caused climate change has, on average, boosted peak pre-landfall Atlantic hurricane wind speeds by approximately 18 mph over the last six years. Forecasters emphasize the importance of preparedness as the season progresses through November 30. Residents in hurricane-prone areas are advised to stay informed about weather updates and to ensure they have necessary supplies and a well-rehearsed evacuation plan.