Nepal is currently experiencing an intensified monsoon season, with forecasts indicating moderate rainfall across numerous hilly regions and parts of the Terai today. The monsoon's low-pressure axis remains positioned near its average across Nepal's Terai belt, driving these active weather patterns. Provinces such as Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Lumbini, and Sudurpaschim are at risk of experiencing heavy rainfall. Tonight, moderate rainfall is expected to continue in several areas, with a possibility of heavier downpours in parts of Koshi and the Terai regions of Madhesh, Lumbini, and Sudurpaschim provinces.
The capital, Kathmandu Valley, anticipates cloudy skies and rain this afternoon, with temperatures peaking around 28°C and a 60% probability of precipitation for both the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures are expected to be around 22°C. The monsoon season, typically from June to September, is crucial for Nepal's agriculture, which heavily relies on rainfall. This year's forecast of above-normal rainfall brings optimism for crop yields and the national economy. However, the increased rainfall also heightens the risk of natural disasters like flash floods and landslides, particularly in the mountainous terrain. Nepal is recognized as one of the most climate-vulnerable nations, with temperatures rising faster than the global average. The impact of the monsoon is multifaceted, affecting agricultural output, infrastructure integrity, and the economy. For instance, severe floods and landslides in late September 2025 caused damages equivalent to 0.8 percent of Nepal's GDP, with agricultural losses alone reaching Rs7.2 billion. While a strong monsoon can stimulate economic growth through increased agricultural production, it also presents significant challenges in disaster management and recovery. The agriculture sector, a cornerstone of Nepal's economy, is particularly susceptible to crop destruction and livestock loss during intense monsoon periods, with preliminary estimates of losses from heavy rainfall events reaching billions of Nepalese rupees, impacting sectors like energy, water supply, and transportation.